€25 NLHE 6-max: 25nl J9s, 2nd nuts and I am confused

posted this in a few places; posting here to get opinions too..

reads: CO is a bad reg, somewhat spewy pre-flop and I've been God-moding him for a while since I moved to this limit. does 3bet light vs UTG opens a fair amount and folds to my 4bets a lot, so I'm assuming his range is capped here because if he had a big hand pre he'd 3bet for action.

BB is a fish, warrants the loose open to iso but J9s is really pretty anyway
checked the turn to check/raise, I think when CO flats with the fish behind on the flop then bets the turn his range should be mostly 1 pair hands/TT/66. I prefer this to barrelling 3 because rivers that are good for me probably get folds from most of his range and I either have to give up on brick rivers or barrel into the reg if the fish folds and worry about him hero'ing KQo or whatever.

river makes me want to cry because he shouldn't ever really play a set like this given board texture.. when i check my range should be air/really weak stuff because I should barrel my value hands to get value from the fish right? so he's assuming I'm giving up pretty much all the time and on a board like this he should want to get value from the fish with most of his value range.
then he raises the river here, I don't think this reg is capable of bluffing with this line so.. he's polarised to the nuts or nothing; and we have blockers to most of his busted draw range so it's nut only hands?

I only think he has AJ here; most likely AJhh since we block AJdd, sometimes AJo. (but then if he's bad enough to have AJo here then is he bad enough to check sets?)

PokerStars - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): €25.00
CO: €48.63 (VPIP: 22.71, PFR: 17.30, 3Bet Preflop: 10.43, Hands: 1,487)
BTN: €49.64 (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 39)
SB: €38.54 (VPIP: 15.86, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 484)
BB: €13.41 (VPIP: 36.75, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 122)

SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.35) Hero has J:diamond: 9:diamond:

Hero raises to €0.75, CO calls €0.75, fold, fold, BB calls €0.50

Flop: (€2.35, 3 players) Q:heart: 6:diamond: T:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets €1.34, CO calls €1.34, BB calls €1.34

Turn: (€6.37, 3 players) 7:heart:
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (€6.37, 3 players) K:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets €3.80, CO raises to €13.75, fold, Hero?

Checking the turn just creates a nightmare for us. Bet your draws. It just looks like weve got a busted draw or pair of Kings by the river. So a raise here by villain is fine, considering the board texture. Im not laying the 2nd nuts down here. Villain can easily have KQ, K10.

Easy call here without a think.

You beat all hands except AJ.

akaRobbo said:

Checking the turn just creates a nightmare for us. Bet your draws. It just looks like weve got a busted draw or pair of Kings by the river. So a raise here by villain is fine, considering the board texture. Im not laying the 2nd nuts down here. Villain can easily have KQ, K10.

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reg in CO bets turn with pretty much his whole range; QQ is discredited because of dynamics, he 3bets pre vs me to 5bet most likely.

so that leaves TT/66 and a whole bunch of Qx that bet/folds turn or bet calls and folds a lot of rivers.

I personally think it's better than barrelling here because it makes bluffing rivers easier and if turn checks through sometimes we have a ****load of outs so we can value bet good rivers vs a capped reg range and the fish.

KQ = Qx which bets turn, KT never flats pre. It's easy to list out hands that we beat but we need to actually put them in villains likely range.

Id put villain on KTs or AJ. Why does KT not flat pre IP? Plus you say he's a bad reg?

Regardless, river is always a call.

I don't think you should lat down your hand in that spot, although from what you said you have a lot of info on the villain and you put him on AJ anyway, it's hard to fold your second best nuts.

akaRobbo said:

Id put villain on KTs or AJ. Why does KT not flat pre IP? Plus you say he's a bad reg?

Regardless, river is always a call.

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KTs folds or 3bets vs my MP open in CO, doubt he ever flats. Ks OTR so KTss isn't there, Td OTF so KTdd isn't there either. KThh can flat sometimes (super rarely) and bets turn sometimes so has even less combos. KTcc has even less of a reason to flat pre or flop.

given those reads and the ones on the way the rest of his range plays, he only plays AJ like this.. most likely AJhh.

only bluff combo is AKdd/AKhh if that doesn't 3bet pre with our dynamic and doubt this reg raises river with those instead of just betting turn as a bluff IP.

Gross spot. Its really hard to fold given we block AdJd which would be the most likely hand he has here.
If he is bad enough to float AJo against UTG range on this sort of broadway wet board, maybe he is bad enough to weirdly play a set as well here?
If we give him all AJ combos and TT/66, we get 12/18 combos that beat us since the bluffs are unlikely in his range.
If he can only have AhJh which is also pretty likely, we are definitely beat.
If both is equally possible, then getting 1:2.4 isn't good enough to call anymore.

For him betting Qx, maybe there is a possibility, being god moded by you scared him and he checks behind QK, afraid of you having AQ or QT or sets?

I think there is definitely a possibility he might thin value reraise assuming you are betting a busted draw and just hoping to get called by fish.

I'd really hate to pinpoint him on just AhJh, so personally I wouldn't give it too much weight and give more weight to him thin value betting because of the fish in the hand. Although if he is bad as you say he could be taking this line with AJo very often and playing sets weirdly sometimes. But given we get 1:2.4 I would call.

On a side not, I agree with turn check, getting blown off double gutter and a flush draw would be giving up way too much equity.

Call. If you're going to assume he'll call pre-, call the flop with AJ, then check the turn, is it a huge leap to think he might take the same line with some other holdings? In addition to the ones already suggested, how about J9?

Given the pot odds, you don't need his range to be that much wider than just AJ for calling to be +EV.

U guys are talking as though him flatting flop with AJo is terrible but AJhh is standard. The bdfd only adds like 5% equity right, so does that extra little bit of equity really make it ok to float AJhh on that flop?