$25 NLHE 6-max: 25nl - Capped range, river decison :s?

Ducky7

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Havent been grinding for a while online so slowly going back into it with some 25nl
Played this one and Im kinda unsure about the river
Think based on my "capped range" and the fact he can have loads of stuff means its close to a call. When he pots it can be to get me to fold this kinda hand or make his value look like a bluff
Dont have much history with him so dont have too many reads on him

Thoughts?
:)

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 32.59, PFR: 27.47, 3Bet Preflop: 16.23, hands: 11,748)
CO: $87.56 (VPIP: 38.92, PFR: 11.71, 3Bet Preflop: 2.73, Hands: 1,482)
BTN: $51.48 (VPIP: 23.15, PFR: 18.85, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 429)
SB: $42.04 (VPIP: 28.31, PFR: 19.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 617)
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $20.54 (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 4:spade: 4:heart:

fold, fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $1.00, fold, Hero calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10, 3 players) 5:diamond: 5:heart: 5:club:
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $1.48, Hero calls $1.48, fold

Turn: ($6.06, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.79, Hero calls $5.79

River: ($17.64, 2 players) T:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.85, Hero should call?
 
Q

QA77

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Its such a big bet, I would lean towards a fold. He could also have some 10s here that he bluffed and got there.
 
Lorpugo

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ima bit f fish but i just cant fold full
 
M

Marginal

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I have some advice. Find a new site to post hand histories on.
 
Aces2w1n

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Easy fold turn.

Id have 3bet pre... because original opener is a weak player and iso will be wider here.

I think we raise here pre we can steal it or at least take it down on the pot with initiative

As you move up higher opportunities like this will be important to snag and its not about your hand... its about your opponents weak range and we can have atc if we time it right.

I think we cant use his 3bet stat here because OR is a weak player and limping... so if he opens wider anywhere its here and we can pressure him


............

AP id fold turn
 
Ducky7

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3b'ing doesnt really make sense here for a few reasons
When we 3b in the sb vs a BN ISO its kind of face up so we dont really get too many folds, we get 4b sometimes and called by one / both other occasions and now we are gonna have to barrel off to win the pot since we dont flop well.
Also set mining 3 way with a small pair with a fish in the pot is exactly what we want
 
Aces2w1n

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Harder to get paid oop.... if we do hit our set after 3bet its easier to get stacks in with fish.

Our hand is far from faceup... when u flat its a bit more predictible
 
M

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Hey some of us are winning players here

Good for you. my comment wasnt in relation to you but just the general ridiculousness of responses in the HA section
 
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braveslice

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BTN is most likely multi tabler with pre defined ranges given how tight his stats are shaping up in a quite loose game. If nothing else he should think that fish don’t fold full house, so him running multi street bluff is more unlikely than him doing that.

I would guess his 3bet range is right now widest, so let say 10%. He has 33% of his whole range beating you with TT+, Tx (AT,KT,QT,JT) he decided to barrel. So to call we need to ask if he is likely to run 3 street bluff against hand that is most likely a full house x% of the time.

EV=0=win(x% of 67%)- lose(1-x% of 67)- lose(33%)= x*0.67*34.5-(1-x)* 16.85 – 0.33*16.85

x= 0.56. I don’t think his 3barrel bluff frequency in this scenario is even close of 50%, if he does he really gives you way much more respect than for an average joe.
 
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braveslice

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Not a 3 bet, so that post has no value, forget that.
 
B

braveslice

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Right, new try:
He is raising 21.57%, river 249 combos = {44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo} imo he is tight, also there shouldn’t be any fold equity pre and given Co is fish not that much on the flop either.

TT+, Tx = 79 combos river = 31.7%

Lol, so the first analysis stands, he needs to be bluffing more than 50% of the time to make the call. Now this doesn't count that he is most likely 2barreling a range with certain structure, which may or may not included Tx hands. Barreling strong aces sounds first logical (making Tx range less present on the river) but then again in position he might as well decide to call with 6 outs (thus over presenting Tx range on the river).
 
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R

razzor94

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Fold pre?
When we call with baby pairs its to setmine and stack off players that we think cant fold monsters postflop. Why call a players raise that can be super wide and can easily fold post flop even when we do hit our set.
3Betting also doesnt makes sense cause our hand doesnt play well post flop especially OOP and if we are restealing with 44 i think we are restealing too much and players can exploit that over a longer period of time with lighet 4betting and calling. So balance does come in play.

Post flop t all comes down to a turn decision and what you put him on on the turn.
If you think you are ahead of him on the turn then you are probably good on most rivers and are going to have to call some river bets as well.
In the long run if you keep calling these turns and then folding every river bet its going to be super -EV.
That said i dont know what can you possibly beat on the turn when he bets except something like AJ+, KQ+ which are not even bluffs since he has 6 outs so basicly they are semibluffs.
Also you have to ask yourself is he really firing 2 bullets with AJ+ KQ+ especially with that bet size ?
If he wanted to fire 2 or 3 bullets wouldnt it make sense to go smaller on the turn then smaller on the river ?
Seems to me he is putting you exactly on the hand you have and to be honest its not really that hard given the line you took.
I would also say that you kind of at the top of your range on the turn as i think TT+ would have 3bet pre so you might decide to call the turn if the turn bet was around 1/2 pot.
Its a fold on the turn for me.
 
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razzor94

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Dont get me wrong when i say you can call if the bet is 1/2 pot.
You could call in this exact hand but you shouldnt be in this spot ever since you should fold preflop.
 
D

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Havent been grinding for a while online so slowly going back into it with some 25nl
Played this one and Im kinda unsure about the river
Think based on my "capped range" and the fact he can have loads of stuff means its close to a call. When he pots it can be to get me to fold this kinda hand or make his value look like a bluff
Dont have much history with him so dont have too many reads on him

Thoughts?
:)

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 32.59, PFR: 27.47, 3Bet Preflop: 16.23, Hands: 11,748)
CO: $87.56 (VPIP: 38.92, PFR: 11.71, 3Bet Preflop: 2.73, Hands: 1,482)
BTN: $51.48 (VPIP: 23.15, PFR: 18.85, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 429)
SB: $42.04 (VPIP: 28.31, PFR: 19.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 617)
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $20.54 (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 4<font color='black'>♠</font> 4<font color='red'>♥</font>

fold, fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $1.00, fold, Hero calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10, 3 players) 5<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='red'>♥</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $1.48, Hero calls $1.48, fold

Turn: ($6.06, 2 players) 2<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.79, Hero calls $5.79

River: ($17.64, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.85, Hero should call?


it is definitely call; BTN has a lot of bluffs there.
 
monkey23

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at 25 level there are some decent players who know how to balance ranges and play those ranges both pre and post flop...so....
Button's range 6 handed...preflop standard size raising a fishy limp from the cutoff.
...any (sooted) ace
...any two (sooted) broadway cards
...any sooted connectors 67+( if Lag ) 89+ ( if just plain agg)
...any pocket pair

should hero call here on the river?...button has a lot of bluffs here considering their line. But they also have a lot of 10's in their range, as well as 66-99+

to reach the correct solution is a lot of maths without using charts. But 44 here is just that...a bluff catcher.

I feel you could have got some good info by leading out on the flop...and certainly by playing the 'Johnny Chan Play' combining a flop check-call, followed by the turn o.o.p. lead out. Negreanu recently posted a vid on you tube highlighting the effectiveness of this play.

glgl to ya :)
 
Ducky7

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Im gonna Jonny Chan every ****er now
 
monkey23

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Im gonna Jonny Chan every ****er now

and lets have a look at oppo's bet sizing too. They bet half pot on the flop, but more or less pot on the turn. This might be info...depending on the accuracy of our interpretation.
the half pot c-bet on the flop ( a response to your check ) was asking you for info...and you replied with a flat call. How would your oppo interpret that flat call?...probably as weakness, or lack of confidence. Doubtful they put you on a 5....certainly considering their turn bet. They probably ranged you on overcards....which is what I think they themselves had....after all...in life generally people often accuse others of what they are themselves.

The turn pot bet was possibly trying to push you off the hand, rather than trying to induce a call...say oppo had TJ / QT etc...they wouldn't want your possible holding including an Ace to call...after all...your range was pretty similar to oppo's range maybe....except that your sooted connector range would maybe start at 89 or so.

then the T comes on the river, and you have a very tough decision, considering oppo's range....so many T's in oppos range.

If you were prepared to call a turn pot sized bet, then it would probably have made sense to lo-ball lead out on the turn for $4 or so yourself....or so the Johnny Chan play theory goes.
 
IPlay

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From a balance perspective I think we need to think about our range preflop here. 44 is usually a fold but we call because we can set mine multiway with a fish in the pot. Are we ever flatting bigger pocket pairs to keep the fish in the pot? If we are we should have better hands to call with and if we are not we are basically at the top of our range with 44(lol, not a jab just funny to think about). So if we are flatting hands like 1010+ we can use those hands to call in these spots and fold hands like 44, if we are always 3 betting those hands we need to call with 44.

As for the above comment(monkey23) Ducky should be flatting 100% of his continuing range to villains flop cbet because he wants the fish to call. It is also very unlikely that Ducky floats the cbet with overs OOP in a multiway pot but IDK how Ducky plays. Also in response to monkey I think you gave the BTN too tight of a raising range here against the CO limp. You can easily include all off suit broadways and more offsuit connectors almost all unsuited Aces too. Hell, I think villain can have plenty of 5x in his range too while Ducky has basically none.

Don't know if there is a solid answer with this hand and it really comes down to a leveling war of what you think villain thinks about your game. We should also have a little more of a read on villains post flop game after 429 hands. Limited reads, but still some reads like if he gets out of line with bluffs, attacks capped ranges, and if he is capable of raising pre and 3 barreling off with air(how often). All in all, this is a pretty shit board/run out to bluff against 95% of the 25NL population who hates to fold boats and love to call. I assume Ducky isn't in this 95% but does villain?

Really interesting hand
 
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