Originally Posted by slycbnew
But if he folds to a river bet when the J doesn't pair, we're losing a lot of value ($4 here as played) - if we're putting him on a lot of Jx/pp's/weaker A's on the turn (that's what I'd put him on, plus a couple of hands that we're behind that make up a very small part of his range imo), we really need to make that turn bet imo, cuz I don't think he'll call the river but will call the turn.
I don't think I should have said, checking doesn't pass much value. I think I should have said checking doesn't always miss value. When we're up against Jx that will call down, checking misses a pot sized bet. That's bad, I get it.
So, after our cbet, I guess we need to consider: Does he have a jack? Will he call down unimproved?
I think a jack raises that flop often enough that we can discount the chances he has one. Maybe he has a jack.
Ace on the turn and we can discount the chances that he calls down. Betting 3 streets will surly look like big pairs/aces to him.
He has to have a jack, that isn't AJ, he has to have passed up a 3bet on the flop, and he has to be willing to call down 3 bets with an ace on the board. With him facing possible big pairs, Ax, and better jacks; I just don't see getting in 3 bets AND getting them called unless we lose.
I'll stand by checking that turn, sometimes.
It's interesting though. I'm going to spend some time looking through my hands w/ paired boards...