$25 NLHE 6-max: 200bb vs nit facing raise on nut turn card

R

RamdeeBen

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Villian is 14/12.

A basic TAG given his raise UTG and his line, I'm expecting to see no bluffs, no draws and always nearly over pairs or sets here. I'm just interested in how we extract maximum value here from this sort of player?

Obviously I'm just raising the turn because we do have an OESD, massive implied odds and we might get him to fold those over pairs even if we miss and board runs out good for bluffing.

Given he raised the turn I'm weighing his hands towards more sets than over pairs but it really wouldn't surprise me if he would over play over pairs on this board here. Do we just flat call the river leaving a nice pot sized bet on the river for him to blast or do you think trying to raise get it in now is better because any gross river he might fold but on the other hand I don't want him folding now either if we just ship it in?

So, call his turn raise or shovel it in? Also if board pairs on the river, do we fold or do we expect this sort of player to still over play over pairs because he has two pair and thinks it's now the nuts?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (Button) ($93.35)
SB ($66.74)
BB ($22.25)
UTG ($50.80)
MP ($27.46)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10
spade.gif
, 8
spade.gif

UTG raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.10) 2
heart.gif
, J
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, 9
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($8.10) 7
club.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.75, UTG raises to $12.75, Hero ???
 
IPlay

IPlay

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I am always flatting that turn since you are in position and can for sure get it in on the river. I can see him folding to a jam on the turn but never really the river. I board pairs on the river then uhhhh, gross spot but I probably call of still. Only sets we should really worry about are JJ or 99 so probably have to pay it off.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Just shove it in. The flop raise disguised your hand, and you don't want a J, T, 9, 8 to hit and make things complicated. Plus, the only thing villain folds here is bluffs.
 
H

hffjd2000

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I flat here and want to see the river. Have to evaluate things base on action and the river card.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Shove over. Nits don't fold overpairs. They wait forever to get them so they really hate folding them. The only thing he's folding to a shove is something like AK that he's turning into a bluff because again he really hates folding cards he's been diligently waiting for.
 
R

RamdeeBen

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Yeah I agree, I think vs nits shoving probably would be best as I don't want a potentially horrible card to come on the river which might kill our action.

I elected to call this time around but given I think he's like never bluffing i think it's a mistake.
 
B

byrnsiey330

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I really like shoving on the turn. He isn't going to fold a set or probably QQ+. I think one table dynamic that would change my mind though is what is your table image? Have you just been running over the table or playing pretty tight?
 
J

jsh169

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I probably shove over, but I think flatting is more profitable. I like others if I think I have fold equity will fire, but if you come over the top you look very strong as in top 2+ at the minimum and that obviously makes it alot harder for you to fire.
 
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