$25 NLHE 6-max: 200bb vs nit facing raise on nut turn card
Villian is 14/12.
A basic TAG given his raise UTG and his line, I'm expecting to see no bluffs, no draws and always nearly over pairs or sets here. I'm just interested in how we extract maximum value here from this sort of player?
Obviously I'm just raising the turn because we do have an OESD, massive implied odds
and we might get him to fold those over pairs even if we miss and board runs out good for bluffing.
Given he raised the turn I'm weighing his hands towards more sets than over pairs but it really wouldn't surprise me if he would over play over pairs on this board here. Do we just flat call the river leaving a nice pot sized bet on the river for him to blast or do you think trying to raise get it in now is better because any gross river he might fold but on the other hand I don't want him folding now either if we just ship it in?
So, call his turn raise or shovel it in? Also if board pairs on the river, do we fold or do we expect this sort of player to still over play over pairs because he has two pair and thinks it's now the nuts?
| saw showdown
Hero (Button) ($93.35)
: Hero is Button with 10
, 8[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif]
UTG raises to $0.75
, 1 fold
, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds
: ($2.10) 2[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/heart.gif], J[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/diamond.gif], 9[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif] (2 players)
UTG bets $1
, Hero raises to $3
, UTG calls $2
: ($8.10) 7[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/club.gif] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.75
, UTG raises to $12.75
, Hero ???