$25 NL, JJ on a TJQ board

[NineLions]

Okay, I've flopped a set on a board that's about as dangerous as it could be. AK has flopped a straight, plus there's a flush draw. And I'm OOP.

Stats on the vliian are almost useless; 50/13/.5 but that's only over a dozen hands or so. I'm relatively new to the table and he had this stack when I sat down. I hit a flush in a limped pot my second time on the button a few hands back.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP2 ($4.80)
CO ($38.75)
Button ($1.25)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($21.75)
UTG ($75.70)
Hero ($33.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with

,

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.35)

,

,

(2 players)
Hero ???


I could be behind, but if so I've got outs.

At $25NL with no reads, there's a wide range of possible hands the villian plays here.


What's the plan on the flop, and then on the turn if the turn bricks?

 

[ChuckTs]

All he's done is called your preflop raise with position on you, you absolutely crush his range here. AK reraises pf, as does QQ, and the only hands we're really afraid of are K9 and 89, both of which make up a small portion of his range. With all the draws I'd be happy to get as much money in as possible. bet bet bet!

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

All he's done is called your preflop raise with position on you, you absolutely crush his range here. AK reraises pf, as does QQ, and the only hands we're really afraid of are K9 and 89, both of which make up a small portion of his range. With all the draws I'd be happy to get as much money in as possible. bet bet bet!

^^^^^^^^^^^

exactly right as usual imo

i wonder how many times someone has said that to a post by chuck ahahah

 

[NineLions]

All he's done is called your preflop raise with position on you, you absolutely crush his range here. AK reraises pf, as does QQ, and the only hands we're really afraid of are K9 and 89, both of which make up a small portion of his range. With all the draws I'd be happy to get as much money in as possible. bet bet bet!

Well, this is $25NL where AK doesn't always reraise PF, and that same night on another table QQ open limped from the hijack and got stacked on a low flop losing to two pair. I've seen AK open limped from late position as well.

Against CC players I would expect those hands to 3 bet, but here I'd only give a 50/50 chance of AK/QQ 3 betting preflop if that's what he holds.


But, there are a huge range of hands that I'm ahead of that might pay me off; 99/TT/JT/QJ/KQ, maybe in combination with a flush draw or backdoor flush draw. Not only might they pay me off, but some of them have draws to beat me.

 

[ChuckTs]

Sorry, I should have said "usually" reraise, but ya you're right. They're in his range, but still aren't a big enough portion of it to worry about being remotely close to behind imo.

 

[NineLions]

I've kind of given away the next streets, but I wanted to post the rest of the hand for another question/point of discussion.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($4.80)
CO ($38.75)
Button ($1.25)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($21.75)
UTG ($75.70)
Hero ($33.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J

, J

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) T

, J

, Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, CO calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.35) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO calls $3.

River: ($11.35) T

(2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $18, Hero raises to $27.85, CO calls $9.85.

Final Pot: $67.05

Hero has Jc Jd (full house, jacks full of tens).
CO Qd Th (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $67.05.


My flop and turn bets are on the smallish side because I had immediately convinced myself that he might have AK. As it was, I hit the boat on the river, and so did he.


But, the point of posting this part is; this seems like an example of reverse implied odds. The villian has more than a full buy-in and calls my early position raise when I have more than a full buy-in. But he calls with an easily dominated hand QT, one of those hands Brunson warns about, I think.

Without both boats on the river he might not get his full stack in, but this still seems like a situation of reverse implied odds. Yes? No?

 

[c9h13no3]

Bet more on the flop & turn. There are so many 2 pair/pair+straight draw hands that will call whatever bet you throw out there. Pot the flop, pot the turn.