25$ NL 6 max: TPMK + Mediocre FD vs. Aggressive Reg

So, there's a lot of history between me & AhmedMohamed9. He's a 3-betting monkey with the following reads/stats:

Stats over 161 hands:
VPIP = 22%
PFR = 16%
Aggression Frequency = 47% <-- that's pretty high, that comes out to an aggression factor of 5.6
C-Bet % = 90%
Turn C-bet % = 71% <-- very capable of double barreling
3-bet % = 12%
Steal % = 22% <--only marginally aware of position.
Fold to c-bet % = 100% <-- probably doesn't stack off light, make too many moves postflop

Reads:
4-bet bluff/calls AI with 55 preflop. Smallish 4-bet (2.75x)
3-bets pretty consistently from the Blinds (21% from BB)
3-bets T7os from BB to my button steal.
Knows I can 4-bet bluff. Multi-tables.

As far as postflop play, I don't have a lot of reads on him. Our encounters tend to be handled preflop.

Here's the 4-bet bluff hand that he pretty much had to take note of.

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sierra54 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
AhmedMohamed9 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
Dealt to Hero [ Ad 7h ]
** Dealing down cards **
Bird Nuts folds
Hero raises [$1.00 USD]
sierra54 calls [$0.90 USD]
AhmedMohamed9 raises [$3.75 USD]
Hero raises [$42.70 USD]
sierra54 calls [$12.64 USD]
AhmedMohamed9 folds
Hero wins $30.06 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2c, 3s, Qd ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
Hero shows [Ad, 7h ]
sierra54 shows [Tc, Kh ]
sierra54 wins $30.04 USD from main pot
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So with all that crap in mind, and how it affects my table image, what do you guys do in this hand?

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$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, August 03, 05:24:27 ET 2008
Table Breaux Bridge (real money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: RMXVIII ( $25.54 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $30.41 USD )
Seat 4: sierra54 ( $30.04 USD )
Seat 5: AhmedMohamed9 ( $26.75 USD )
Seat 6: Bird Nuts ( $10.32 USD )
Bird Nuts posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
Dealt to Hero [ ]
** Dealing down cards **
sierra54 folds
AhmedMohamed9 raises [$0.85 USD]
Bird Nuts folds
Hero calls [$0.60 USD]
Potsize = $1.80
** Dealing Flop ** [ ]
Hero checks
AhmedMohamed9 bets [$1.80 USD]
Hero calls [$1.80 USD]
Potsize = $5.40
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
Hero checks
AhmedMohamed9 bets [$4.75 USD]
Hero ($27.76 behind)
------------------------------------------

I think raising, calling, and folding all have merits here. Thoughts?

You guys don't seem to like this hand. So lemme "stimulate" the discussion a bit, and throw out what I did on the turn.

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$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, August 03, 05:24:27 ET 2008
Table Breaux Bridge (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: RMXVIII ( $25.54 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $30.41 USD )
Seat 4: sierra54 ( $30.04 USD )
Seat 5: AhmedMohamed9 ( $26.75 USD )
Seat 6: Bird Nuts ( $10.32 USD )
Bird Nuts posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
Dealt to Hero [ ]
** Dealing down cards **
sierra54 folds
AhmedMohamed9 raises [$0.85 USD]
Bird Nuts folds
Hero calls [$0.60 USD]
Potsize = $1.80
** Dealing Flop ** [ ]
Hero checks
AhmedMohamed9 bets [$1.80 USD]
Hero calls [$1.80 USD]
Potsize = $5.40
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
Hero checks
AhmedMohamed9 bets [$4.75 USD]
Hero goes all in for [$27.76]
------------------------------------------

Part of the difficulty here is that some players tend to play one style preflop and a wholly different one postflop - especially multitablers. It's unfortunately not at all impossible that he's hyper aggressive preflop and a nit post.

Having said that, I'm not sure I like the shove, unless you're hoping that the'll either fold AK/KQ or that he calls with a flushdraw. I suppose he might. What was your thinking on the flop?

F Paulsson said:

What was your thinking on the flop?

Click to expand...

C-Bet % = 90%
Turn C-bet % = 71%

Click to expand...

I'm ahead of his range, I want value from a C-bet, and I don't want to raise & let him bluff shove with a big diamond.

And I doubt he's a nit postflop, since he double barrels a ton.

Calling ranges =/= betting ranges...

ChuckTs said:

Calling ranges =/= betting ranges...

Click to expand...

Elaborate. Are you suggesting I fold flop?

c9h13no3 said:

Stats over 161 hands:
Turn C-bet % = 71% <-- very capable of double barreling

Click to expand...

I don't think you can really take turn stats into account with 161 hands on villain. I guess that 71% is 5 out of 7 hands that reached a spot where he had the opportunity to double barrel on the turn. And that is a tiny sample size to estimate villain's turn betting tendencies.

c9h13no3 said:

Elaborate. Are you suggesting I fold flop?

Click to expand...

I'm saying that he's not going to look you up with anything close to what he's double barreling you with when you CRAI. BS (lol nice abbreviation...) is also right in that postflop stats take a long time to converge and these probably don't mean much at all.

I'd ask what his wtsd was, but that's probably not converged yet either

ChuckTs said:

I'm saying that he's not going to look you up with anything close to what he's double barreling you with when you CRAI.

Click to expand...

Isn't that kinda the idea? I can fold out a huge portion of his range, a lot of which has me beat. And if I just call the turn, I can't really call a river bet when a diamond hits, or when a blank hits.

So then you're turning your hand into a bluff? If he's cbetting and double barreling so much, why shut that down with a hand that crushes those ranges?

What better hands are you expecting to fold anyways? With your history do you really think he's folding KQ?

ChuckTs said:

So then you're turning your hand into a bluff? If he's cbetting and double barreling so much, why shut that down with a hand that crushes those ranges?

What better hands are you expecting to fold anyways? With your history do you really think he's folding KQ?

Click to expand...

I'm turning my hand into a bluff mostly because it folds out a huge range, but also because he's in position, and will probably value-town the hell out of me on the river with holdings that beat mine. Might even be able to push me off the pot on a bluff.

By CRAI'ing, I probably fold out KQ with no diamond. Maybe AK as well, but its hard to say. I also fold out the ace of diamonds who very well may get a v-bet out of me if a diamond hits on the river (or an offsuit ace).

Basically, the range of legit hands that he's v-betting I'm not crushing. And he may be able to push me out of the pot or catch up & v-bet with his air & semi-bluffs. So I kinda elected for the weak/tight play and turned my hand into a bluff/semi-bluff rather than trying to play a difficult river.