$25 NL 6-max: Big bluff on scary board.

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'm at work, so no stats on villain, but I'd guess like 30/10 or something. Only a few hands on him. I don't know how he got to a $40 stack.


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Hero is Cutoff with $32.75 and is dealt :5h4::4h4: (which are totally irrelevent)
Villain is BB with $40

Preflop:


2 players fold. Hero raises to $1.00. 2 players fold. Villain re-raises $0.75 to $1.75. Hero calls $0.75.

Potsize = $3.60

Flop: :js4::10s4::9s4:

Villain bets $2.00, Hero raises $6.00 to $8.00, Villain calls $6.00.

Potsize = $19.60

Turn: :js4::10s4::9s4::jc4:

Villain checks, Hero goes all-in for $23.00...

Bluff has to work 54% of the time to show profit.
==================================

He's peeling the flop with a wide range that has to fold to a big turn bet right? Plus the flop hits my range way harder than his, no? Or if he's not that sophisticated, THE BOARD IS SCARY AND ITS LOTS OF MONIES TO CALL!!!

Like it? Love it? Gotta have it?



 
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whodatdare

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You've only played a few hands with him so you really have no idea if he 3-bets light from the blinds. Granted, it's a min raise, but he's not folding this turn while holding one of the high spades or a small pair.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Um, wat? A naked A of spades is certainly folding, as are pairs under 9.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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lol I know I've been ragging on you lately, but I'll do it a little more: I hate this. It's spew.

He's a fish. He 3bet you pf, so that means big cards or pairs. He cbets and calls your raise on that board. So either he's got an overpair, top pair (now trips), maybe AT, a big flush draw, a set, or very occasionally something like 88. Basically none of the above (save 88 or AT) are folding to a turn shove.
 
honky75

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I really don't like the move. He obviously has you beat, any call and you may as well muck. You're risking all your money with presumably ZERO outs.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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lol I know I've been ragging on you lately, but I'll do it a little more: I hate this. It's spew.
I <3 being ragged on, its cool.

Man, I thought there wasn't much to analyze here. I was gonna post it last night, but I just thought, "Meht, seems like standard preying on weakness".

Villain's flop bet is pretty un-convincing, and I think flush draws, straight draws, and pairs that don't have a big spade are folding. Fish tend to bet large for value, and they bet these 2/3 pot bets as c-bets. Most of the time its pretty transparent.

And lastly, I think he's peeling the flop a hell of a lot lighter than just the range you gave him. This 3-bet in my experiance is AK most of the time (or a lot of trash), and weak/bad players will peel this flop since they have a gutshot with AK. AQ is calling as well since they've got an open ender.

Idk, I guess its less good than I originally thought, but I still think you'd be suprised at what these 'tards can fold. We're not trying to manipulate a thinking, good player. We're manipulating a bad player. Bad players often need more than just a flop raise to move them off the hand. When I bluff bad players, I often go all the way with it, because that's usually what it takes to get them to fold. They don't understand that the commit decision is on the flop, and they call with all sorts of crap until you force them to put all their chips in.

I think once I raise the flop, I'm committed to jamming the turn. Especially since the J isn't a bad card to jam.

You're risking all your money with presumably ZERO outs.
Oh noes, I have no outs if called, whatever is a boy to do! You know sometimes, playing your opponent's range is a lot better than playing your own.
 
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ChuckTs

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The no outs issue is pretty big too. I wouldn't mind this nearly as much if we had the As or an open-ender or something because we don't need our bluff to succeed nearly as often since we have equity when called (which again, imo, happens quite often here).

It's not quite that spewy, I think you do have some fold equity against the AK/AQ hands that would peel the flop but maybe fold the turn, but I still think it's thin at very best.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Hmm... if my hand had the A of spades, my bluff would need to work 36% of the time instead of 54%, so I suppose that 18% is pretty appreciable.

Eh well, I pretty much had my opponent pegged on AQ+, JJ+ with his 3-bet. Fish usually don't 3-bet that light. I figured I could fold out all the combinations of AQ & AK, leaving me just the pairs to be concerned with. Combine that with his weaker flop bet, and I felt pretty good about running him over here.
 
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grift

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He has way more hi spades and straight draws than you guys give him credit for. Top pair plays this more aggro because he's afraid of getting drawn out on. Not an awful bluff, just marginal.
 
pimpinalovabkln

pimpinalovabkln

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so im guessing he folded. and did you show him your cards?
 
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whodatdare

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And, if he's a 30/10 player you have to give his 3-bet OOP a little more respect, IMO.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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so im guessing he folded. and did you show him your cards?
I don't really remember, because the results don't matter. ;) But I'd never show someone my cards.

And, if he's a 30/10 player you have to give his 3-bet OOP a little more respect, IMO.
It was a minimum 3-bet. He's giving me huge implied odds, and its very easy to read his hand postflop. I'm not folding to that 3-bet ever.
 
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