Originally Posted by ChuckTs
lol I know I've been ragging on you lately, but I'll do it a little more: I hate this. It's spew.
I <3 being ragged on, its cool.
Man, I thought there wasn't much to analyze here. I was gonna post it last night, but I just thought, "Meht, seems like standard preying on weakness".
Villain's flop bet is pretty un-convincing, and I think flush draws, straight draws, and pairs that don't have a big spade are folding. Fish tend to bet large for value, and they bet these 2/3 pot bets as c-bets. Most of the time its pretty transparent.
And lastly, I think he's peeling the flop a hell of a lot lighter than just the range you gave him. This 3-bet in my experiance is AK most of the time (or a lot of trash), and weak/bad players will peel this flop since they have a gutshot with AK. AQ is calling as well since they've got an open ender.
Idk, I guess its less good than I originally thought, but I still think you'd be suprised at what these 'tards can fold. We're not trying to manipulate a thinking, good player. We're manipulating a bad player. Bad players often need more than just a flop raise to move them off the hand. When I bluff bad players, I often go all the way with it, because that's usually what it takes to get them to fold. They don't understand that the commit decision is on the flop, and they call with all sorts of crap until you force them to put all their chips in.
I think once I raise the flop, I'm committed to jamming the turn. Especially since the J isn't a bad card to jam.
You're risking all your money with presumably ZERO outs.
Oh noes, I have no outs if called, whatever is a boy to do! You know sometimes, playing your opponent's range is a lot better than playing your own.