200nl6max: Squeeze AK, whiffed flop...

Villain is 32/24/1.5, folds only %22 to 3bets, but folds %80 to cbets. Only a few hundred hands on him though. I've squeezed (for value, doesn't matter because they didn't look me up) like 3 times in the last two orbits.

Easy bet/fold? Ch behind?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $200 (100 bb)
BB: $245.95 (123 bb)
UTG: $850.20 (425.1 bb)
MP: $41.80 (20.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $226 (113 bb)
BTN: $202.30 (101.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A K
UTG raises to $6, MP calls $6, Hero raises to $25, 3 folds, UTG calls $19, MP folds

Flop: ($59) J Q 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ...

Yeah, easy bet/fold imo.

I take the free card here almost 100%.

vanquish said:

I take the free card here almost 100%.

Click to expand...

Agreed, this flop hits villains range pretty hard and I don't expect him to be folding to frequently. I just check here and hope to spike my gutshot/A/K.

bw07507 said:

Agreed, this flop hits villains range pretty hard and I don't expect him to be folding to frequently. I just check here and hope to spike my gutshot/A/K.

Click to expand...

This, very wet flop for a c-bet.

+1 for checking vs unknown but more I think about it the more i can see a bet against this particular villain since I think alot of his calling range is middle pairs which he will lay down along with some suited connectors no in spades.

I take the free card as well. We have between three and four outs to the nuts in a big pot and getting checkraised off that 20% equity sucks. And with him opening UTG and calling a 3-bet OOP when he's not last to act says that he's in the stronger part of his range. Even AA is feasible here.

As long as we also check back some other hands than AK on this flop, at least. Like AQ. If checking back means turning our hand face-up, then I'm not so thrilled about it since he can just bet any non-broadway turn and expect us to fold.

I agree with everything above about taking the free card, especially considering the recent value squeezes. This would be too easy for a good thinking opponent to bluff CR (and given his stack size it seems like he is a strong player). We do not want to bloat the pot and any bet here is really shrinking maneuverability for later streets since you're lowering your stack to pot ratio.

What's your range for the villain? I'd look closely at his raise UTG % (you have Hold 'Em Manager, right?). CR% on flop? What is his went to showdown? My plan for this hand would be cautious given your recent image, showdown value, etc.