200nl6max: OESD in 3bet pot gets minraised

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain is thebox 87 without the space, a 22/18/3.1 reg. Fold to 3bet: %62, folds %33 to cbet in 3bet pots (46 normally), and raises flop cbet %13 (12 normally), %27 wtsd. 9k hands.

It looks to me like he has a hand, but at the same time I'm pretty light with my 3bets so I think I could be getting a little bluff-raise or semibluff raise. I could also be completely wrong with that thinking.

What of our flop cbet size? I planned on bet-shoving the flop but changed my mind after getting minraised :eek:

Do we have enough fold equity to push? Is flatting the minraise too weak? Fold??

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $193 (96.5 bb)
CO: $197 (98.5 bb)
BTN: $114.65 (57.3 bb)
Hero (SB): $244.65 (122.3 bb)
BB: $176.75 (88.4 bb)
UTG: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with K
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J
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2 folds, CO raises to $7, BTN folds, Hero raises to $23, BB folds, CO calls $16

Flop: ($48) T
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4
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Q
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(2 players)
Hero bets $30, CO raises to $60, Hero ...
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Wouldn't a non-standard line (like a min-raise) be more indicative of an actual hand? I'm a big fan of jamming over min-raises, but I've never encountered them from a reg before.

Idk, his raise gives us huge odds to call & draw to our straight. But with 32% equity, we don't need him to fold all that often...

Blah, I prolly just jam it in, cuz I'm mega spewy in 3-bet pots, but I don't think calling is that bad either. Generally when they're giving you odds to draw, I'd take that option. 3.6:1 with a 5.25:1 draw to the turn (unless you count K's as outs). Add in a dash of implied odds from the ~110 or so he has behind, and I think I flatting is the best option.
 
Richyl2008

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How about checkraising allin on the flop? He may even check behind and give you a free card which wouldnt be so bad. Seems he doesnt like folding to cbets in 3bet pots very much.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I think i shove here as we really don't need that much FE to make this profitable. But then again I tend to spew a little in these spots, so probably the best line is to flat call.
 
ChuckTs

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How about checkraising allin on the flop? He may even check behind and give you a free card which wouldnt be so bad. Seems he doesnt like folding to cbets in 3bet pots very much.

Also a very viable option, forgot to mention that.
 
Jagsti

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Yep, I like the chk/raise all in here pf usually. CB looks a little smaller than normal, probably around $34-35 maybe. As played, C9 is pretty much spot on here, we have odds to draw, and as FP says quite often, if we have no FE, but odds to draw, then take the odds.

Min raise is quite unusual from a reg though, I sometimes do it when I have the nuts, but that board is too dangerous for that, given that I think we have some FE here so shove it baby!
 
F Paulsson

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Well, he called a 3-bet in position. That at least removes the trash from his range. Some players - even regs - may continue with any pocket pair in position.

If we very carefully try to get in his head, what exactly is he doing with his raise? What is he trying to achieve?

He's not protecting vs. a flushdraw or a straight draw, that much is sure.

He doesn't particularly need to raise here in order to build a pot big enough to stack us off with a monster, because it was already 3-bet preflop and the SPR after we bet is, what, 3? No, he can't be raising in order to build a pot.

Now, I want to raise the flag I've raised a couple of times recently, namely falling into the trap of thinking that our opponent thinks like us. Him having stats similar to ours doesn't mean that he plays hands the same way we do - only that he plays the same way as often as we do. His minraise, quite frankly, is weird.

It could be a misclick. Maybe he meant to call. Maybe he meant to type in an amount to raise to but was a bit quick and missed putting the cursor in the right window and then typed in 90 and clicked "raise" before noticing his mistake.

Maybe he has AJ and goes for a cheap semibluff hoping to fold out AK or 77-99. Maybe he has 77-99 himself and goes for a cheap "bluff" hoping to protect against/fold out AK.

Maybe he has a flushdraw. Probably a combodraw in that case.

Stuff he folds if we shove: Weak "bluffs" that still beat us, like underpairs to TT, or even JJ. AT. AJ. AK. Maybe even QJ.

Stuff he won't fold: Flushdraws (and most of the ones that he can have probably beat us), sets, QT and probably not AQ.

My very vague conclusion? His minraise has left us enough money behind that I think we have a decent chunk of fold equity if we shove, because there's enough hands that are equally likely to be in his range that fold if we shove. Specifically, I'm targetting AJ, AK and AT and possibly 88-99 and JJ. They might not particularly make sense, but not much does, so I'm willing to just fall back on combinatorics and say that they're more likely than QQ, TT, QT and 44.

An argument against shoving is if we think it's likely he has a flushdraw, but there aren't that many flushdraws he can have.
 
BelgoSuisse

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OK, so to sum it up, we pretty much all get confused and end up shoving this, apart from Fredrick who times out while working out the combinations. :D

So Chuck, what did YOU do?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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How about checkraising allin on the flop? He may even check behind and give you a free card which wouldnt be so bad. Seems he doesnt like folding to cbets in 3bet pots very much.
I actually like that line a lot. In 3-bet pots, when I'm out of position, its probably the most common line I take. Only problem is it looks a little bluffy.
 
F Paulsson

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apart from Fredrick who times out while working out the combinations. :D
Tongue-in-cheek as it may be, this isn't so far from the truth as you might think. Imagine my panic when I noticed Party didn't have a Time bank. ;)

In all seriousness, though, I do try to think along these lines at the table, but I tend to go on "gut feel" of what the combos might look like. My internal dialog goes something along the lines of:

20 seconds left: "Huh."
19: "Minraise."
18: "Monster? What monster? QQ? TT? Probably TT in that case."
15: "Why minraise a monster?"
14: "bluffing?"
13: "Uh, yeah, I suppose..."
<here I linger in doubt for a few seconds>
10: "Or he has a weak made hand and wants us to fold AK."
8: "Jesus christ, I have no idea. Not that many monsters..."
5: "Uh. AJ? Flushdraw?"
3: "Quick now, call or shove, call or shove, call or shove."
1: "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! SHOVE!"
 
blankoblanco

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c/r flop would look exactly like what we have, namely a draw. are we really gonna check AA/KK on this flop? clearly not. are we gonna check a set or QT? we can instill in him very slight fear of that but it's still doubtful, both statistically and practically. it's an action flop and we're probably (rightly) betting a hand. that said, i don't think it's that bad cause sometimes he just doesn't have anything and we pick up his bet. but if he has much we should be getting looked up

i'd bet and shove now cause like belgo said, we don't need much FE to make it profitable. imo you should make your flop bet a little smaller since, as you said, you were looking to b/3b
 
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