200nl6max: AK squeeze gets 4bet

4bettor is a 18/13 reg. %63 fold to 3bet, %1.5 4bet, and his pfr is %13 from MP. Large sample size. BTN is a big fish at 36/2/3.1. He's probably folding to my squeeze, nevermind the 4bet.

Just want some thoughts on the general line, what you do vs the 4bet and if there are alternatives here.

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $231 (115.5 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)
BTN: $321.70 (160.9 bb)
Hero (SB): $263.95 (132 bb)
BB: $103 (51.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with K A
UTG folds, MP raises to $8, CO folds, BTN calls $8, Hero raises to $33, BB folds, MP raises to $82, Hero ...

I never like to call a 4-bet with a drawing hand against a solid player. At best you figure him to have QQ which gives you reasonable odds to play. More likely you are up against AA, KK, or possibly AK. Against a weak player or a loose player I play differently. Against someone who seems solid, I lay it down. Could be wrong, but too many times I am playing way behind even if I hit. Best to release and try again I think.

Throw it away, fast. best case scenario your in a coinflip, but with a lot more cards that will make people sets. Also you may be drawing all but dead if someone has aces, so chuck it in the much after the 4bet

SusieP said:

Throw it away, fast. best case scenario your in a coinflip, but with a lot more cards that will make people sets. Also you may be drawing all but dead if someone has aces, so chuck it in the much after the 4bet

Click to expand...

i dont get the ' but with a lot more cards that will make people sets' ??

I replied at Stox on this hand, but decided to do a bit more work on it and came up with some interesting numbers.

Calling is out of the question. I hope I don't have to explain why.

If we shove and he folds, it's clearly good for us. But he just made a committing 4-bet and I think a tight reg will know that. He has no intention of folding.

There's 8+33+2 = $43 of dead money in the pot when the action gets back to us, and the stacks are effectively 100BB deep. If we shove and he calls, the money we stand to win is $43 + $200 (his stack) and the money we risk is $167 (the rest of our effective stack).

So we risk $167 to win $243. How often do we need to win to break even?

243:167 = 1.46:1, or about 41%. Actually slightly less, but we don't want to break even, we want to how a profit. So let's go with 41%.

... and now we construct his range:

equity versus only AA and KK: 18%
Equity versus AA,KK and QQ: 31%
Equity versus AA, KK, QQ and AK: 38%
Equity versus JJ+,AK: 40%

Yeah, this is scary close. The question we're asking here is "is JJ in his range?" and "in that case, is JJ as likely as AA?"

For shits and giggles, a range that includes AQs: 43% to win.

This is where recent history versus this opponent comes in. If we're perceived as reckless, he might be 4-betting AA here hoping that you'll come along with a lot of crap. But if you've been playing somewhat tightly, then wouldn't he flat at least some of the time with aces here?

Then, again, he just made a committing 4-bet. With a very optimistic range, we're showing a profit. With anything but an optimistic range, we're not. So I revise my StoxPoker answer and change it to "fold." But it's close.

In the words of Eric Cartman, it's hella close.

If there's some chance of him tilting or pulling a "iknowthatyouknowthatiknow" outlevelling bluff, it's a snap call.

Yeah I folded with the basic reasoning that he's uber tight, there was no history, and he's completely committed himself here.

Thanks for that FP, exactly the response I was looking for.

And thanks for posting it here as well as Stox, FP.

CC got the better analysis. On Stox I just said essentially "probably shove."