200nl6max: AA vs check-raise

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain is BGnight, a 23/18/3.6/%33 over 2.6k hands. Flop ch-r is %12. I've been pretty aggro at this table though so I think his numbers may be a little misleading. Not sure to what degree.

I think he'll be ch-raising draws here, the occasional bluff, maybe a queen if he has a brain fart and legit hands obviously.

So...best line?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $222.15 (111.1 bb)
BB: $243.35 (121.7 bb)
Hero (MP): $202 (101 bb)
CO: $217 (108.5 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A
diamond.gif
A
heart.gif

Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($16) 5
diamond.gif
9
club.gif
Q
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, SB raises to $34, Hero...
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Pushing here, well were prolly gonna get called by all draws, were gonna fold out worse hands and obv get called by sets. He probably won't stack off with tp here, but meh.

Calling to see a blank turn is feasible, but it's a risky line. Yes we diminish his equity big time if he is drawing and blanks the turn, but are we willing to lay down the hand on a scary turn.

I hate stacking off with an overpair in a 2bet pot, so I may play this a little defensive and flat flop re-evaluate the turn, but I'm a little lost here in all honesty.
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

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3-bet / call it off. You even have the backdoor flush draw, just in case.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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We're afraid of 55/99 only really. I'm willing to get it in now.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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I think I like Jason's line here better, have a look at the turn, get it in on a non scare card, dunno how correct it would be folding on a K/J diamond turn, we will get bluffed out too often imo.
 
F

feitr

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He's calling from the sb, so i don't really see this, nor the board, as a good bluff raise spot. 55 and 99 are well within his range, and obviously draws and the occasional bluff raise.

As to what line to take it is a pretty ugly spot. I think typically i'd flat flop and make him donk out on the turn and reevaluate your play on the turn. Sometimes you can get some bet sizing/timing tells from villain's turn play as well. Is there a stat that shows a villain's turn bet% after c/r flop?

I always hate this spot tho, especially vs a fairly aggro villain when your image is somewhat lag. If your image is poor i wouldn't hate getting it in here, but if villain has no reason to believe that you will hardly ever have a hand in this spot i really don't like 3 betting the flop/getting it in.
 
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