re: Poker & 200nl6max: 88 bvb
Originally Posted by vanquish
yeah well even if he jams AJo+, ATs+, 77+, all the times he folds here makes up for us being a 57:43 dog
edit: it's sort of like jamming AK preflop. you don't do it because you think you're golden against villain's range (esp. with those villains who only get it in preflop KK+), but all the times villain raise/folds preflop makes it a worthwhile shove
yea i know, that is why i said he has to fold at least 50% of the time to the 4B. But according to chuck, he is really not inclined to be folding to 4Bs here at all once he makes the initial 3B (only 25%). So the question then is this: if villain is 3Bing fairly light here is he willing to get it in really light (ie. 70% of his 3Bing range or whatever) or is his 3Bing range actually tighter than we might think (ie. getting it in 70% will actually be like AQo+, AJs+ 77+). Sb vs bb villain might be flatting a fairly wide range, ie. not 3Bing decent but somewhat marginal hands, which would be turning alot of decent hands into bluffs, or 3Bing alot of marginal hands for "value". What i am saying might not be that clear, but what i mean is that if somebody is 3Bing 7% and rarely folding to a 4B, they are either willing to get it in light (well obv this has to be the case to some degree) or they don't tend to 3B hands like s/cs and just focus on the "top 7%", which IMO is more likely the case. Pokerstove has the top 5% of hands as 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo, so if you are getting it in with 75% or so of the top7% hands, you are looking at a range like ^^, which definitely does well against 88.
The real question then is how much wider is villain's 3B range in a sb vs bb situation, especially vs an aggressive player who steals alot. And obv can't know that without alot more information. Just thoughts, not trying to say what is the right or wrong play as it is mostly dynamic based and I don't think you can really analyse this in a vacuum (ie. get results oriented about it). If villain showed up with AJs here then it looks like a completely standard play, and if villain shows up with AA it looks idiotic, but both those hands are part of a range that most likely > 88.
As for my actual opinion about what to do:
I'd 4B and get it in if villain 3B wider from the blinds (ie. clearly was 3Bing light) and there was an aggressive dynamic present (bvb steals/battles/3Bs etc). You aren't bad against a "value 3B range" and if you can definitely put some very airish hands in villain's range where he is forced to fold alot of his range or get it in REAL light then i think this becomes profitable. With no dynamic and villain not inclined to make alot of moves bvb or whatever, then i'd fold. Calling really is never an option imo.