200NL: Two pair on monotone board facing turn-raise wtf

[blankoblanco]

villain is 23/5. what the heck is this? the line looks really strong, but also the range of hands he's repping to beat me is so narrow. is folding too weak? do they ever have just a FD or pair + FD here?

***** Hand History for Game 7841867801 *****
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, August 28, 08:57:50 ET 2008
Table Sullivan (edu) (real money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: caboom1965 ( $99.25 USD )
Seat 2: jcearth ( $293.40 USD )
Seat 3: o_suited_o ( $225.85 USD )
Seat 4: Kurtkeoki ( $203.00 USD )
Seat 5: drtd ( $161.80 USD )
Seat 6: TheKodiakBear ( $104.60 USD )
Seat 7: JLutteringer ( $151.00 USD )
Seat 8: Imzeus ( $120.75 USD )
Seat 9: combuboom ( $220.00 USD )
Imzeus posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
combuboom posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to combuboom [ 3c 4s ]
caboom1965 calls [$2.00 USD]
jcearth folds
o_suited_o folds
Kurtkeoki folds
drtd folds
TheKodiakBear folds
JLutteringer calls [$2.00 USD]
Imzeus calls [$1.00 USD]
combuboom checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Qd, 4d ]
Imzeus checks
combuboom bets [$6.00 USD]
caboom1965 calls [$6.00 USD]
JLutteringer folds
Imzeus folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
combuboom bets [$14.00 USD]
caboom1965 raises to [$28.00 USD]
combuboom...

 

[ChuckTs]

naw I think folding is absolutely fine here. Guys this bad generally don't take this line with anything but 2pair+, and occasionally KQ/AQ that got sick of your betting and want to end it there on the turn rather than face a river bet. But even then they're drawing fairly strong, namely with the a diamond draw.

I fold half reluctantly. I'm also drunk though, so it probably means it's a clear fold

err i just noticed it's a minraise. balls. I give up, just pay him off and cry vs A6d.

 

[Chris_TC]

His range is almost exclusively comprised of (combo) draws and bluffs. We have nothing to be afraid of other than QT (possibly QQ/TT).
At 6-max I'd 3-bet and get it in. I'm unsure how much different full ring is, but it can't be a fold which Chuck will certainly agree with once he's sobered up

 

[F Paulsson]

It could just be top pair that raises for protection and figures that he'll check behind if you call. He may well check behind on the river with all weaker hands and only bet his monsters. This makes calling the turn and check/folding the river a pretty compelling alternative.

 

[blankoblanco]

His range is almost exclusively comprised of (combo) draws and bluffs. We have nothing to be afraid of other than QT (possibly QQ/TT).
At 6-max I'd 3-bet and get it in. I'm unsure how much different full ring is, but it can't be a fold which Chuck will certainly agree with once he's sobered up

well i'm definitely not getting it in here. i just got raised on the turn by a loose passive. if you call are you check/calling basically any non-diamond non-counterfeiting river? are there some you won't call? is it too dependent on how much he bets?

also, if he makes this raise to $42 instead of min., does that change your line?

 

[blankoblanco]

bump

 

[Chris_TC]

well i'm definitely not getting it in here. i just got raised on the turn by a loose passive. if you call are you check/calling basically any non-diamond non-counterfeiting river? are there some you won't call? is it too dependent on how much he bets?

also, if he makes this raise to $42 instead of min., does that change your line?

What's his postflop aggression factor? Just because he doesn't raise pre a lot doesn't mean he's passive postflop. If his postflop aggression factor is below 1.5 I'd certainly lean more towards calling the turn instead of raising.
If I call the turn, I check-call a save river whereas I blocking bet/fold a dangerous river. His bet sizing on turn and river doesn't change my plan.

 

[blankoblanco]

well tbh in my experience VPIP/PFR and the discrepancy between the two is often (but of course not always) a better indicator of a player's overall passivity/aggression than aggression factor until you have a very large sample. AF takes a long time to converge and imo some people put way too much stock in it when it's based on like 20-50 hands or something silly

but for what it's worth, i think his AF was like 1 or 1.5 over 5 or 6 orbits. i thought he was sort of loose passive-ish in general. i couldn't remember him raising postflop at all, but i was playing other tables so take that with a grain of salt