[200NL] QJ cbet gets raised on Q-high drawy board

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Villain is somewhat of a nit preflop (18/16) but aggressive and just a tiny bit on the loose side postflop. He doesn't marry hands, but once he sees a flop, he likes to play. His flop aggression frequency is 56%, and not over a small sample, so it's not like he's doing this with only sets, and the only two pair combo in his range is Q9 (and probably only Q9s) making it fairly unlikely that he has me beat. His 3-bet is 10% from BB, by the way, so we can probably reduce the likelyhood of AQ and even KQ, too.

So there's probably a lot of draws in his range when he raises me, ranging from flush draws and OESDs to gutshots.

But can I play this hand profitably out of position? If I call the flop (I doubt that raising is a good play, but I'll hear arguments for it if you have them) what do I do on a bricky turn, say 6s? Donk? check/raise? Go for a cheap showdown? How do I balance not giving free cards with opening myself up to be raised off of the best hand?

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HAND #1
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party poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $270.85 (135.4 bb)
Hero (SB): $230.39 (115.2 bb)
BB: $235.05 (117.5 bb)
MP: $573.68 (286.8 bb)
CO: $490.20 (245.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q
club.gif
J
heart.gif

3 folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12) 5
diamond.gif
Q
diamond.gif
9
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $8, BB raises to $26, Hero tanks...
 
Irexes

Irexes

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Call and pray for a J.

A brick on the turn and I think either betting or checking has merits, though the goal is to get to the river without costing too much (or a diamond hitting).

It's a horrible set up on every level and I wouldn't hate a fold.
 
B

baudib1

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In the example you gave, 6s gives him the nuts with 8d7d, which I think is definitely in his flop 3-bet range because you probably have air here more than a real hand.

But yeah I probably call and donk a brick...
 
bob_tiger

bob_tiger

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You did say his 3bet is 10% so I'm thinking we have best hand here and he is on a draw, just like you said, I don't think I want to raise here because its very likely he shoves over the top with a good draw, so therefore I'm thinking call, pray the turn is a brick, but then if we bet on the turn does he keep chasing?
I think I would check even if the turn is a brick, and then act based on what villain does.
 
Tygran

Tygran

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You did say his 3bet is 10% so I'm thinking we have best hand here and he is on a draw, just like you said, I don't think I want to raise here because its very likely he shoves over the top with a good draw, so therefore I'm thinking call, pray the turn is a brick, but then if we bet on the turn does he keep chasing?
I think I would check even if the turn is a brick, and then act based on what villain does.

so we are going to put him most likely on a draw and then give him a free card?

Are you planning to try and take the pot away on a brick turn if he bets after the check?
 
bob_tiger

bob_tiger

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so we are going to put him most likely on a draw and then give him a free card?

Are you planning to try and take the pot away on a brick turn if he bets after the check?

We have no choice but to give him a turn, if we raise the flop, I really think villain will re raise back at us since Mr. Paulsson did say that he is kind of loose post flop, so then we have to face with a tougher decision and if we call him he gets to see both the turn and the river, where as if we flat the flop and the turn is a brick we have a chance of taking the pot down on the turn/or going for pot control, cheap showdown. I really don't think we can fold this either knowing we have the best hand here.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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He's also got a lot of bluffs in his range which is the main reason for calling flop, CR'ingAI turn.

I'm looking at his raise flop % first here. Anything over %20 or so and I think we can assume we're good. Flop aggression is freakin huge and that has me thinking we can definitely continue here. I'm not sure a thinking player will barrel here often with his bluffs though. I do think he'll raise a turn donk though since it looks ridiculously weak.

Yeah, I think I flat and donk-call (or shove) turn.
 
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