re: Poker & [200NL] JTo gets checkraised on T-high flop - line check
If he has a set, I think him checking the turn after I call the flop is perfect versus me. I mean, what do I have? I clearly have something, and that something is going to want to bet for protection very often. And with the weakest part of my range, my draws... Well, if I flat his flop raise with, say, QJ, then I'm going to bet the turn 100% of the time when checked to. So he maximizes versus my draws, and versus my made hands. I wonder if I'd be able to fold AA when he check/raises the turn. Probably not, although in practise AA is not that different from JTo, except that it has more outs versus T9.
Maybe that's not such a minor difference. 6 extra outs versus his most likely hand can certainly push it towards a call with AA but fold with JT.
Moving away from the hypothetical and back to this hand, though, I'm basically having to answer "is this a bluff?", and he needs to bluff... What, 30% of the time? Yeah, almost exactly 30% of the time. And it's even MORE than that, because some of the time, he'll be bluffing but draw out. So he needs to not have a hand a very large portion of the time for me to be able to call.
As a sidenote, I do this myself with a hand like QJ in his spot. I'm not sure he's smart enough to, but versus an opponent who can read hands and make folds, it's not at all a bad play: We checkraise the flop as a semibluff, and we check the turn because we want a free card. When the free card is denied, we can call, but not really, because we don't have the right odds
to draw. But throw the rest of the stack in and we'll make some money off of the folds, and we'll draw out often when we're called.