200NL - JJ on T high flop facing all-in decision

Villain is 48/10/0.76 over a fairly small sample of 41 hands

For the session I've been 29/23/3, so a fairly LAG image

fulltiltpoker Game #3521292194: Table Kiowa (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:12:30 ET - 2007/09/10
Seat 1: Tonyk245 ($189.65)
Seat 2: Fast Eddie McG ($389.45)
Seat 3: markyG891 ($195)
Seat 4: Finmacul ($200)
Seat 5: BaDnEwS216 ($283.40)
Seat 6: combuboom ($218)
Tonyk245 posts the small blind of $1
Fast Eddie McG posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Jd Jc]
markyG891 folds
Finmacul folds
markyG891 stands up
BaDnEwS216 calls $2
combuboom raises to $9
Tonyk245 folds
Fast Eddie McG folds
BaDnEwS216 has 15 seconds left to act
BaDnEwS216 calls $7
*** FLOP *** [2d Td 7s]
BaDnEwS216 has 15 seconds left to act
LoCoDovet sits down
BaDnEwS216 bets $20
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom raises to $60
BaDnEwS216 raises to $209
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom

Call and expect to see a combo draw (98d) /T9/JT, I think.

One problem is his aggression factor is so tiny and he seemed passive enough that it was kind of hard for me to feel confident that he's the type to play draws that fast

The limp/call is llooking like a pocket pair, and the uncharacteristical aggression seems a lot like a set or Aces. I'd fold here.

Raise all-in, you know if he has you beat you are gonna suck out anyway.

(Just kidding - couldn't resist!!!) lol

Reads ? Stats ? Without them i give credit to a set. Easy fold

tenbob said:

Reads ? Stats ?

Click to expand...

first two lines. If I had more, I'd give more

He could have a higher PP here, its always fishy when BBs run the clock before calling lol.

What does the 48 mean? That he plays a lot of hands preflop?

I say your in trouble here, unless he just lost him mind. I would fold to most likely a set or a slow played over pair.

It's the fact that you said you have a "LAG image" that makes me think that villain thinks he has more equity than he actually does (combo draw, tp, etc)

The trouble here is that you are vulnerable to every other PP overcards.
The other Possibilities of 22 or TT would also beat you.

This leaves a Diamond Flush draw. Lets assume that he has AK diamonds - you are 51% to win as he also has overcards. Basically its flip a coin time if he has a flush draw- 70% best.

So you beat tx, PP 3's to 9's.

Your stats show you to be very aggressive and that you raise with a wide range of hands. he knows that you do not need the nuts or near nuts to play aggressively. ( as shown here ). He could easily be calling your bluff with a smaller PP, however It is entirely possible and likely that he has limped 10,10 QQ, KK, AA knowing that if you raise he has trapped you as he knows you will be aggressive after the flop.

My view is that you have asked a strong question with Your re-raise and got a strong reply. You should IMO listen to the answer and fold.

alan1983 said:

He could have a higher PP here, its always fishy when BBs run the clock before calling lol.

What does the 48 mean? That he plays a lot of hands preflop?

Click to expand...

Yes it means that he voluntarily puts money into the pot 48% of the time. He is loose with card selection preflop. In this case, say, 2,3suited would be in his range, as would say 10,K. Basically he could have almost anything.

IMO this type of player can quite easily desguise a monster PP with a Limp also as people assume them to have anything/nothing. The fact that his agression is fairly low indicates that he is selective on agression ( normally when he has something ).

There is an interesting one.

I like the reraise as a move. Its one I use from time to time and one that I find to be +EV when used in the right place and right time.

My theory is that this is not the right time and place. You have played this tables for only 41 hands, but you have developed a very agressive image. Almost every time you enter a pot, you raise. Also your aggression stat would indicate that you are probably aggressive after the flop too. This means that your opponents know that.

a) you raise with circa level 3 hands ( eg not premium hands).
b) you raise when limpers are in the pot to clean up ( stats indicate this )
c) you will be aggressive post pot.

Basically you are are setting yourself up for a slow play to a observant player.

This indicates that you could VERY EASILY be playing against an overpair.
Here is the issue. The reraise on the flop would be respected if you had a Tight-neutral image. But your agressive image means that it is less likely to be respected. It is VERY POSSIBLE that the person will have lowered their all-in range to TPTK to call your bluff.

In short, you are either WA/WB. I think that the benefit of this move is you can win a pot here and now with the re-raise if you have a Tight-neutral image even if you arr behind to say QQ. Your move would/might be respected. When you ask the question you should get a respected answer. You would know where you are and you will have and answer to the question.

However in this case you do not know the answer to your question due to the fact that your image gets no respect.

Thats my Theory here. Hope it makes sense.

vanquish and caliban, I agree my LAG image comes into play and he may not respect my raise. And I still agree he could play a draw this way, merely less confident than I normally would be with it, due to his passive stats. However it should be again noted that it is only over 41 hands, and I know I've gone that many hands and more without remotely hitting a flop

Guys, I actually don't think a higher PP is likely. Yes, he's limping a lot, but he's still raising 10%. This is basically your standard "limp way too many marginal hands, raise strong hands". I thought he'd be raising QQ or KK, small possibility he would limp to attempt a trap with AA, but not otherwise

Also, it's not a WA/WB situation really, because he could have a draw. If his aggression factor is high I think it's a pretty standard call, but this made it more complicated

So I really felt like the hands to worry about were a set, T7, possibly trapping AA. Hands I'm hoping to see if I call are AT-T8, draw, bluff that doesnt respect my raise, or some other goofy 7x, 88-99 hands. And I'm also getting about 2:1 on my money

Combuboom,

When you checked raised, what were your thought process.

a) trying to win the pot there and then?
b) trying to find out where you stood?
c) trying to induce the all-in as you thought youwere good. ?

I understand your reasoning that a call maybe attractive on pot odds alone, however based on a combination of the fact that you have only played 41 hands & his stats and your image I would withdraw and put in my notes.

even though its only 41 hands I find that your image from the last <50 hands can have a big impact of way people play against you. hence a limp PP and bluff are both on the cards/ He is active hence likely to only be playing 1 table and hence is attentive??

Just some thoughts, no answers.

I didn't check raise. He donked into me out of position and I raised

I raised because I figured to have the best hand and because I didn't want to let an A/K/Q/stupid gutshot draw or something see a turn card without charging them more. If he's just donking into me with Ax/Kx to test the waters (the flop looks unlikely to have hit me) and I call and let him hit the turn, I just cost myself a big pot. I will smoothcall here in position sometimes, but I'm much more likely to do so against aggressive opponents. That's because I'm way more likely to get more value out of bluffs and my opponent value betting a weaker hand.

With a player this passive, if he's taking a shot on the flop with nothing or something less than top pair, and I call, he's not going to take another shot unless he outdraws me. It's kind of a "negative freeroll" spot, giving him a free chance to outdraw me when he's only going to put more money in the pot if he outdraws me.

And I was actually raising intending to call a shove, so I did make the size something I thought was most likely to induce a shove. So obviously at that point I'm going to call, and I did call. But that doesn't mean my method was the best

Also a really major factor with the guy being 48/10 is simple: it means he's probably, well, almost without a doubt, not very good at poker. Even over a sample of 40 hands, you can discern that much. He seems to think he has a good hand, but to a bad player, top pair often seems like the nuts. You see these types of players go broke with it countless times. Furthermore, there is a really small % of bad players who will bet strong into the preflop raiser on that board when they hit a set. It almost takes discipline to do something like that, because players are always so afraid of losing their opponent. The standard is either to check raise or check call. So I had a hard time believing he'd lead out into me so strong once he hits his set and risk "scaring me off" when I'd almost certainly bet if checked to

Enough rambling, results to come soon

A good discussion combuboom, with some good topics and thoughts.

( sorry about the check-raise thing, the principle of my questions were the same though).

IMO this is very read-dependent (on yours and your opponents'). I think I could go both ways here readless - a player like this at 50nl is playing Tx and draws often enough that we're ahead of his range by a long shot, but I'm not sure we have enough hands to make a call here.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with a fold considering this looks exactly like a set, but I think there is a case for a call here. I probably call because I can't lay down big hands to action like this

ChuckTs said:

IMO this is very read-dependent (on yours and your opponents'). I think I could go both ways here readless - a player like this at 50nl is playing Tx and draws often enough that we're ahead of his range by a long shot, but I'm not sure we have enough hands to make a call here.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with a fold considering this looks exactly like a set, but I think there is a case for a call here. I probably call because I can't lay down big hands to action like this

Click to expand...

This was a lot of what went through my mind. The last thing I mentioned in my other post is something I hedged on a lot. How often does a "bad" player bet really really strong (just under pot size) INTO the preflop raiser when they hit their set on this flop? I mean, I almost never ever see it. And it's not like I'm repping an overpair preflop.. all I did was raise, as I've been doing frequently. I just don't expect this type of player to bet out so strong into the aggressor with a monster, you know

out of interest, I see two types of player who VPIP >40. Very very bad ones and ones who know exactly what they are doing. The 2nd type would bet their strong hands on the flop, knowing that people see them as loose/poor. I have been burnt here. ( regardless of this hand)

Thats why I agree with your both that your read is most important.

But almost all of the good players with high VPIP have very high PFR stats as well, because they understand the importance of aggression and making your decisions for the rest of the hand easier (limp-calling makes your decisions harder because you don't know where you're at). I generally find it hard to believe that a 48/10 knows exactly what he's doing

I realize a few numbers don't give everyone the full image and experience that I had personally sitting at the table. I will say that I didn't have much respect for his game and didn't think he was any good

results:

FullTiltPoker Game #3521292194: Table Kiowa (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:12:30 ET - 2007/09/10
Seat 1: Tonyk245 ($189.65)
Seat 2: Fast Eddie McG ($389.45)
Seat 3: markyG891 ($195)
Seat 4: Finmacul ($200)
Seat 5: BaDnEwS216 ($283.40)
Seat 6: combuboom ($218)
Tonyk245 posts the small blind of $1
Fast Eddie McG posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Jd Jc]
markyG891 folds
Finmacul folds
markyG891 stands up
BaDnEwS216 calls $2
combuboom raises to $9
Tonyk245 folds
Fast Eddie McG folds
BaDnEwS216 has 15 seconds left to act
BaDnEwS216 calls $7
*** FLOP *** [2d Td 7s]
BaDnEwS216 has 15 seconds left to act
LoCoDovet sits down
BaDnEwS216 bets $20
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom raises to $60
BaDnEwS216 raises to $209
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom: ace ten?
combuboom calls $149, and is all in
combuboom shows [Jd Jc]
BaDnEwS216 shows [Kd Th]
*** TURN *** [2d Td 7s] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [2d Td 7s Ac] [6s]
combuboom shows a pair of Jacks
BaDnEwS216 shows a pair of Tens
combuboom wins the pot ($436) with a pair of Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $439 | Rake $3
Board: [2d Td 7s Ac 6s]
Seat 1: Tonyk245 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Fast Eddie McG (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: markyG891 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Finmacul didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: BaDnEwS216 showed [Kd Th] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 6: combuboom (button) showed [Jd Jc] and won ($436) with a pair of Jacks

Well I hoped you noted him

Little bit of a risky call with so few hands on the guy, but I don't hate it. Like I said, at smaller stakes I'm perfectly willing to stack him here.