[200NL FR] Probably Spew, but I try to Reason it

B

bw07507

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Alright, Villain here is a very aggro reg, 18/15/4.2 with a 3bet% of 6, WTSD of 20%, and turn and river bet% of 47 and 53% respectively.

Anyways, I call flop and turn deciding my hand might be best, but once he bets the river I feel like I am no longer good anymore and I think that I can push him off AA, KK, AQ with a river shove here repping either a J or rivered boat with QQ. I have a feeling everyone is going to think this is terrible, but I justified it to myself when i did it.

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $281.85 (140.9 bb)
UTG: $212.25 (106.1 bb)
UTG+1: $200 (100 bb)
MP1: $200 (100 bb)
MP2: $248.35 (124.2 bb)
Hero (MP3): $249.65 (124.8 bb)
CO: $201 (100.5 bb)
BTN: $213.70 (106.9 bb)
SB: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with T
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T
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4 folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($45) J
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6
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J
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(2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($85) 3
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(2 players)
BB bets $35, Hero calls $35

River: ($155) Q
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(2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero raises to $172.65 and is all-in
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I actually think from the way he played it your hand is good here a fair percentage of the time but you would have raised any J before the river imo. He's been betting 1/2 pot or less so his hand, to me, looks a lot like a missed FD. The only thing I think might fold that beats you is KhQh, nothing else. So yeah the shove is spew, I think.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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The fact that you would already have raised a jack (maybe 66 takes this line) with all the draws out there, plus the fact that you're giving him like 4:1, plus the fact that if you had a draw it missed means you just don't get folds often enough here. imo.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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bluffs have a lot less credibility when there's a missed flush draw on the board, imo. If you got a fold here, villain overplayed AK and you were ahead anyway. I really doubt a hand stronger than TT folds here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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As a rule of thumb, any bluff that relies on villain being able to fold AA on the river getting good odds, is probably a mistake. So no, I don't like it.

I like calling the river, though.
 
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