Originally Posted by Chris_TC
Why does everybody debate shoving or folding? Calling and shoving blank turns over his bet is best imo.
2 reasons I think that's tricky (although it may very well be the best line):
1) There are so many non-blanks in the deck. Any spade, ace, 7, or 8 potentially makes his hand, and any or 6, T, 9 could be bad cards as well. We really have the potential to put money in drawing dead silm on the turn, when we could've easily put it in on the flop flipping. Additionally, we may make a fold incorrectly if say, villain has As9x and he shoves when a spade rolls off the deck. And that'd be a pretty giant mistake.
2) Even if we shove over his turn bet, he's still likely getting pot odds
to call with whatever draws he has.
Lemme do the math just to check:
If we call, potsize on turn = $95, villain has $154 behind. He bets $70 on the turn, with $84 behind, and we shove, he has to call $84 into $319 or 3.8:1. So yeah, he's a million percent committed.
I guess his original bet on the turn would be a mistake, and it would cause him to put $154 into the pot with usually a 30% draw.
So on the flop, jamming can never be a mistake. We're pretty much always going to have equity against his range to make it okay. Jamming on the turn can possibly be a more +EV play, but if we read his hand incorrectly based on the turn card, we have a big risk of putting $ in really bad.
But now that I think about it, I suppose shoving any non-(spade, ace, 7, or 8) turn might be best best. But that's like 19 cards in the deck out of however many though, I think its going to put us into a tough spot big time. And if there's pure air or bad draws in this guy's range, then we may be better off just shoving the flop.
Argh, these spots are no fun.