200nl FR AK in 3-bet pot

zachvac · Jul 11, 2008

CO: $37.40
BTN: $211.65
SB: $216.70
BB: $225.20
UTG: $270.35
UTG+1: $461.05
Hero (UTG+2): $200
MP1: $295.30
MP2: $348.90

Pre-Flop: K

A

dealt to Hero (UTG+2)
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, SB raises to $26, BB folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($54) 9

4

Q

(2 Players)
SB bets $32

First off does anyone 4-bet this preflop? Fold? If I'm oop I'm often folding to a 3-bet but I'm in position here with AK so I call here.

So we brick the flop and villain leads out. Do you give up here? Raise? Float? What's our plan here?

Villain is 13/9/inf over ~70 hands.

Munchrs · Jul 11, 2008

against that opponent I fold without knowing what his 3bet % is and what he plays like postflop.

what does he 3 bet that we are beating? We are either a massive dog(AA/KK), flipping (QQ or lower) or have the same hand. AK.

We are also OOP and it is unlikely that your postflop edge is going to be good enough to overcome his superior hand range and position.

zachvac · Jul 11, 2008

Munchrs said:
against that opponent I fold without knowing what his 3bet % is and what he plays like postflop.

what does he 3 bet that we are beating? We are either a massive dog(AA/KK), flipping (QQ or lower) or have the same hand. AK.

We are also OOP and it is unlikely that your postflop edge is going to be good enough to overcome his superior hand range and position.

We are IP, he is SB and we are UTG+2. I don't have a big enough sample for 3bet % to converge but the average 200nl player is 3betting a much wider range than QQ+/AK. And if it's a lower pocket pair we can profitably call because we have the postflop edge as we are IP.

BelgoSuisse · Jul 11, 2008

I think I would float this. See if he double barrels on turn.

Munchrs · Jul 11, 2008

zachvac said:
We are IP, he is SB and we are UTG+2. I don't have a big enough sample for 3bet % to converge but the average 200nl player is 3betting a much wider range than QQ+/AK. And if it's a lower pocket pair we can profitably call because we have the postflop edge as we are IP.

ok i should really read the HH more closely as i did this the other day too.

BelgoSuisse said:
I think I would float this. See if he double barrels on turn.

this makes alot of sense, alternatively you can raise it up now and have a bit more equity if you get called because of your outs assuming a king and/or an Ace will give you the best hand.

AQs is probably the hand im most scared of as it cuts our outs in half.

Also at 200nl do regs generally raise c-bets on the flop alot as bluffs or do they call the c-bet and bet/raise the turn?

dsvw56 · Jul 11, 2008

I like floating here and folding to a turn bet.

F Paulsson · Jul 11, 2008

I don't mind calling this preflop, since we're in position. Had the 3-bettor been on the button instead of in the blinds, I might have 4-bet just to save myself the awkwardness of deciding what to do with a flop like, for instance, this one.

I don't like floating this flop. We're drawing to either 3 outs or runner-runner flush/straight the majority of the time unless we can peg this player for a live one, and his stats don't appear to suggest it. What are we hoping will happen on the turn? If we make him wilder than he seems to be and assign him a range of TT+, AQ+ we have 25% equity, and severely reverse implied odds.

In the absolute best scenario, he has TT and we draw to six outs, and hit an ace or a king on the turn and he stacks off with third pair. In this utopian scenario, we still can't profitably call. We need to win back seven times what we call on the flop in order to justify it, which is an amount that just isn't there.

And that's the BEST case scenario. It all goes downhill from there.

I bleed money with loose calls all over the place, but I have no problems making this fold.

Dorkus Malorkus · Jul 11, 2008

A 13/9 3-betting an EP raise OOP is a sure sign of trouble. He probably doesn't do this with AJ, or even AQ (and even if he does with AQ we're trailing and he's not folding), so the best we can hope for from a pure 'what cards does he have' perspective is that he has another AK. Otherwise he has a big pair and we all know that nits have trouble folding their big pairs anywhere, no matter how hard a job you do of repping TP/a set/the flush if it hits on the turn/etc.

It simply feels to me that putting anymore chips in is spewy - preflop is fine and I just toss it on the flop. If we float and he checks a blank turn, he's probably still check-calling down with most of his range.

zachvac · Jul 11, 2008

F Paulsson said:
I don't mind calling this preflop, since we're in position. Had the 3-bettor been on the button instead of in the blinds, I might have 4-bet just to save myself the awkwardness of deciding what to do with a flop like, for instance, this one.

I don't like floating this flop. We're drawing to either 3 outs or runner-runner flush/straight the majority of the time unless we can peg this player for a live one, and his stats don't appear to suggest it. What are we hoping will happen on the turn? If we make him wilder than he seems to be and assign him a range of TT+, AQ+ we have 25% equity, and severely reverse implied odds.

In the absolute best scenario, he has TT and we draw to six outs, and hit an ace or a king on the turn and he stacks off with third pair. In this utopian scenario, we still can't profitably call. We need to win back seven times what we call on the flop in order to justify it, which is an amount that just isn't there.

And that's the BEST case scenario. It all goes downhill from there.

I bleed money with loose calls all over the place, but I have no problems making this fold.

Then what flop are we looking for if we call 3-bets with AK? Obviously in this hand we are not playing for a showdown, so our AK may as well be 23o at this point. The question isn't about equity, it's about what hands we can get our opponent to fold. KK/AA are not going to fold and most likely AQ won't either here. But if this is the extent of villain's 3-betting range we should be folding preflop (technically we have the equity edge but AQ is not paying us off without hitting and if we plan on stacking when we hit our A or K we lose a lot of money when up against AA while KK can get away if we flop an A).

But since our AK turns into a bluff so often here, and when we do hit we're worried about AA/KK, is it maybe correct to 4-bet here against a villain who will 3-bet light? If he won't 3-bet light is it really correct to fold AK IP to a 3-bet?

zachvac · Jul 11, 2008

Dorkus Malorkus said:
A 13/9 3-betting an EP raise OOP is a sure sign of trouble. He probably doesn't do this with AJ, or even AQ (and even if he does with AQ we're trailing and he's not folding), so the best we can hope for from a pure 'what cards does he have' perspective is that he has another AK. Otherwise he has a big pair and we all know that nits have trouble folding their big pairs anywhere, no matter how hard a job you do of repping TP/a set/the flush if it hits on the turn/etc.

It simply feels to me that putting anymore chips in is spewy - preflop is fine and I just toss it on the flop. If we float and he checks a blank turn, he's probably still check-calling down with most of his range.

ok same question, if we put him on nothing but big pairs and AK, why is preflop fine here? If this is the extent of his range why would we not fold preflop?

F Paulsson · Jul 11, 2008

zachvac said:
ok same question, if we put him on nothing but big pairs and AK, why is preflop fine here? If this is the extent of his range why would we not fold preflop?

Because preflop we're 50/50 vs. JJ+, AQ+. After this flop, we're not.

Jagsti · Jul 11, 2008

Floating here is gonna be costly as if we brick the turn, then we have to bluff the river. If he has TT/JJ+ we're never getting rid of him imo.

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200nl FR AK in 3-bet pot

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