[200nl FR] 76s flops two pairs on super drawy multiway flop

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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UTG+2 is 23/14/2 and cbets 100% so far over 140 hands.
MP3 is a 16/7/3.5 reg who does not like folding to cbets too much (56%)

We flop bottom two pairs and the board is super draw heavy, unless someone has a straight already.

Should we fold, flat call or shove here?

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $40 (20 bb)
Hero (BTN): $223.55 (111.8 bb)
SB: $85.65 (42.8 bb)
BB: $168.90 (84.5 bb)
UTG+2: $241 (120.5 bb)
MP1: $113.85 (56.9 bb)
MP2: $135.45 (67.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6
club.gif
7
club.gif

UTG+2 raises to $7, MP1 calls $7, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $7, CO folds, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($31) 8
heart.gif
7
diamond.gif
6
diamond.gif
(4 players)
UTG+2 bets $31, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $62, Hero ???
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

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That's a nasty little spot. I almost wanna call and see what the PFR does. If they both stick it in we can fold. If the PFR folds, we can decide on the turn whether we want to stack off.
I am a little unsure about this one though.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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That's a nasty little spot. I almost wanna call and see what the PFR does. If they both stick it in we can fold. If the PFR folds, we can decide on the turn whether we want to stack off.
I am a little unsure about this one though.

on flop, if they both stick it in, isn't it most likely that the preflop raiser has an overpair and the second player a combo draw, so we would be making a mistake by folding? Or are there so many sets and made straights in his range that our equity sucks?

if we flat, what do we plan to do on turn? Half the deck is scare cards (all diamonds, T,9,8,5 and 4), and a strong draw might shove even it misses, and so does a set of course.
 
B

bw07507

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What is MP3s raise flop cbet %? If it is low I could almost see just folding this hand since a low cbet raise % means that he is not raising a lot of his draws. Also, if I have a big draw here in MP3s spot i sometimes flat the cbet, especially with an aggro player behind me, hoping that he raises the flop and then I can jam.
 
Sumun

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i think they have an overpair or a flush/straight proyect
i would call and see the turn
note that utg+2 can raise, if so and you are in, you should call too

humble opinion
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

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on flop, if they both stick it in, isn't it most likely that the preflop raiser has an overpair and the second player a combo draw, so we would be making a mistake by folding?
Good point. I figured an overpair would be a bit reluctant to just stick it in after all this action but then again I don't expect an overpair to fold either. Hard to say really.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Results

I shoved, which tends to be my default when in doubt... :eek:

UTG+2 folded and MP3 called with Ad5d, i.e. with both straight and flush draws, which made us 50/50.

I'm not sure i like my play. It's probably fine if MP3 has weaker draws in his range too, but i don't know if he does. There might be more value in flatting, but i'm really confused about what i should do on turn then.
 
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