200NL: flop nuts, I don't do the standard thing

most important part of this hand is that villain is a nitty winning reg, plays about 11/7. i'm sure he recognizes my name and thinks of me as a reg, but a lot of my stats on him are datamined so we don't have a bunch of history

i flop gin and decide to lead out the same way i would with a 7, 56, 45, figuring that c/r-ing looks way too strong and it'll get checked around too much. i get raised by this guy, which is super strong. if he has a slowplayed overpair (incredibly unlikely) i'm virtually positive he'll fold to a raise

i'm 95% sure he has a set and is never folding to a raise. most people would think that's reason to 3bet. i think it's better reason to just call. thoughts?

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $183.70 (91.9 bb)
BTN: $100 (50 bb)
SB: $283.10 (141.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $203 (101.5 bb)
UTG+2: $131.55 (65.8 bb)
MP1: $200 (100 bb)
MP2: $245.15 (122.6 bb)
MP3: $216.25 (108.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 6 4
UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($9) 5 3 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $6, MP1 raises to $18, MP2 folds, BTN folds, Hero calls $12

I like it. I mean why would you want all the $$ to go in when you're way ahead????

because it's +EV but i don't think it's the most +EV way of playing the hand!

I don't get it...you 'know' he has a set, 'know' he won't fold to a flop 3bet, yet you just flat?

edit: that doesn't make sense - the highest ev line, assuming he stacks a set here 'always', is to just bet and get it in before an action killer/hand killer comes...

Build that pot

first of all, can we all agree that he virtually always has a set here? a multi-tabling nit raises this coordinated flop 4way with two players after him. openlimping 64s, 75s, 89s, etc. aren't in an 11/7s range or their VPIP would be much higher (and even if they were in his preflop range, he's not semibluffing a weak draw here). and if he somehow had less than a set, we can agree he wouldn't stack off, right?

i don't think i'm making some huge read by saying i know he has a set here, so i'd like to establish that others agree with that part

Yeah, basically. Funny how FR works like that, but yeah I guess aside from the very occasional 67s or slowplayed AA or whatever, this is mostly sets.

really didn't think 67s or AA was in his range at all though. limp-raise % is 0 over 5k for one thing, so i don't have him as a guy who openlimps big pairs at all. and if he ever openlimps 67s in EP, i'm sure he's flatting flop. guy is really unaggro set-mining type. although tbh, if either of those were in his range, it probably adds more EV to calling since he's not stacking off with them on the flop

but again, virtual certainty that he had a set was the only reason i played it this way. will see if anyone stumbles upon the way i thought about the hand or if everyone just keeps saying i suck (probably the second one )

I'll agree with you on the set thing... vast majority of the time that's what this is

An 11/7 will sometimes surprise you with something else but not often and he's not stacking anything else anyway

However..i'm sorta with the others going "wtf"? If you are 95% sure he has a set and 95% sure he'll stack off right here with it then... why aren't we stacking off so he can pair the 3 and make quads on the river?

Interested to see where you are going with this though...

combuboom said:

because it's +EV but i don't think it's the most +EV way of playing the hand!

Click to expand...

If he always has a set and he always calls a raise, how can something other than raising possibly be more +EV when each card you see only decreases the likelihood of him stacking or of you having the best hand. If there was the threat of him folding to a 3-bet, then calling becomes a viable option.

Seriously, you're way over thinking this, imo. 3-bet to like $50ish, and do your best to get it in as quickly as possible.

yeah I agree with your reasoning combu, it's just I'm in the 6max mindset and find it weird to pin someone on just a set based on such limited action. Just saying there is (very rarely) other stuff in his range.

I honestly can't see where you're going with this though :/

edit: what dsvw said...

I think we're getting kinda leveled?

Is this going to end in "fold the straight because he will outdraw me, the way I'm running"?

okay, i'll give a leading question into what went through my mind:

if you were a superuser (you can see your opponent's hole cards), do you think it'd be more +EV to knowingly get the $ in as a 65/35, or to play out the hand and fold every single time he hits, and get his stack almost every time he misses?

egh, I'm way too lazy to figure out how often an action killer comes/how much he pays off or how often he folds to action when it does/how often he improves, all on the turn/river and calculate which line is higher EV, but that's an interesting point.

yeah, i mean i definitely wouldn't do it with a flush draw on the board or even 567r holding 89 cause there are way more action killers. on this board there are only 6 cards that can hurt my action on the turn, 4s and 6s. if a 4 or 6 came, i was leading big. he'll always at least call because he thinks he has implied odds to hit his boat. i was going to instantly check/fold if the board paired at any point in the hand, i was that sure

I guess that depends - will villain still definitely stack off if the board ends up looking 5376x or similar?

There are about as many "scare" cards left in the deck as there are outs to the villain's boat. If he still stacks off when they come then I can see what you're getting at. But if he doesn't, then we're saving money when the board pairs but losing action when the board scares - it pretty much comes out even.

(Edit - posted before I saw the above two)

but even if he doesn't completely stack off on a 4 or 6, it doesn't make that situation stop being +EV. we get some of his $, possibly a lot still, but at least some

I'm going to bed so I'm not going to try to work it all out right now, but intuitively I think you could make this more profitable. Getting in now + dead money is going to be close to $70 avg expectation, right. Whats your move on a blank turn. Are you going to check/call to leave a pot+ bet on river or get allin with 77% equity?

You're thinking about this WAY too much combuboom and the way you've been running has got you scared to get outdrawn. You're a solid favorite. Get your money in good and let the cards fall.

Besides if you shove here and he hits his FH/quads on the river you can always come here and whine about it.*

i agree with wvhillbilly
u flop the absoulte nuts. even if hes got a set dont be afraid of ur bad luck.
just re raise him and thats all u can do if all the money goes in the middle.
u did the right thing and most of the time ull walk away with that pot

has nothing to do with the way i was running, WV. just think about the question. i'm not saying my way is definitely better, but open your mind a bit

combuboom said:

if you were a superuser (you can see your opponent's hole cards), do you think it'd be more +EV to knowingly get the $ in as a 65/35, or to play out the hand and fold every single time he hits, and get his stack almost every time he misses?

Click to expand...

Put the f%&#*%^Q@#%&king $$$ in the middle!

sigh, you guys are ridiculously close-minded

thanks for the insightful posts, skold. you've really contributed a lot

ok, so let's do some math and assume your read is 100% correct, which i think is a bit unsure. Could have small overpairs and things like that in his range, imo. Anyway, let's trust you.

you play for stacks on flop. you have 65% equity vs. a set and that means your EV is $260

you wait turn to play for stacks. You check-fold when the board pairs, i.e. 7 times out of 45, which keeps $180 in your stack. 34 times a blank comes and you stack with 77% equity, which has an EV of $308, and 4 times out of 45 a scare card (4 or 6) comes and villain flats your $30 bet on turn, you check fold river when it pairs (24%), and he hero calls another $80 bet on river when he wiffs (76%).

you EV there is (7*180+34*308+4*(0.24*150+0.76*330))/45 = $286

if he fold river when he board does not pair after the scare card hits, that's only (7*180+34*308+4*(0.24*150+0.76*250))/45 = $280, which is still +EV compared to stacking on flop.

Would you actually rather wait till river to play for stacks? Probably even more +EV, tbh

Caveat: i'm not sure we are correct to assume we can always play for stacks on blanks when we choose not to raise flop. Even with a set, villain has position and it's hard for us to take a line that does not look super strong, which could make him want to play pot control. In his eyes, if he considers we're solid, once we wait enough to remove draws from our range, it becomes really polarized between crazy bluffs and monsters, and he could easily be unhappy about a bottom set, for instance. Not enough to fold, but enough to keep the pot from building up to full stack size.