[200NL] AQo OOP, raised on river
Villain is decent party reg. A bit on the passive side over a decent sample.
3bets 9% on the button.
River AF%: 25%
Other stats available on request.
I open AQo to 4xBB under the gun. Folded to villain on the button who calls. Blinds fold.
Flop comes A-6-2 rainbow. I check, because there aren't many aces in his range that I beat, and there's no sense in folding out weaker hands. He checks it back.
Turn is an offsuit deuce for the dryest turn board I've ever seen. I bet $11 into the $19 pot. He calls, which, after my flop check, I guess he might do with a lot of hands. That's sort of the point with the flop check; to invite looser calls on the turn.
Pot is $41.
The river is a jack, for a complete board of:
I bet $25. He raises to $65, pot is laying me $131, and $40 to call. I tank for a bit and fold.
At the table, my thought was along the line of "what is he bluffing now that he called the turn with?" and I couldn't come up with anything. After the fact, I'm seeing this:
His range preflop is something along the lines of:
His range is mostly unchanged after the flop, although perhaps the likelyhood for some of his weaker holdings go down some since he declined to bluff the ace-high flop with them. I'm not sure about that, though, since this particular villain is slightly passive.
Turn is a deuce, and I bet and he calls. Here is the pivotal point in the hand, in terms of defining his range. I think we can almost completely dismiss the idea that he's floating the turn with a hand like T9s, because he doesn't seem bluffy, and there's absolutely no draw for him to try to catch.
I narrow his range to: TT-22,AJs-A9s,76s,65s,AQo-AJo
... and that's wide. I don't think that his range is actually that wide, but if I'm looking for a call on the river I need to find a way to make that happen, so I'm going with the wide range.
The river is a jack. And he raises my bet.
The size of his range before that as a percentage of all possible hands (thanks, PokerStove): 7.4%.
If we let him bluff the entire part of his range that I can beat, his bluffing range is: 4.4%.
So, theoretically, he could be bluffing 60% of the time ( 4.4 / 7.4 ). But that seems extremely far-fetched. For instance, why would he bluff raise me with A9 or AT instead of just seeing a showdown? He's passive. Somewhat similar reasoning applies to 99-TT. Removing those hands from his range brings it down to 2.9%, meaning that he's bluffing 40% of hands. And that's if he bluffs every time with the part of his range that he might conceivably think "missed" and also requires him to have made a slightly loose call on the turn.
I think I like my fold.