200NL: AK preflop

blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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table reads:

I'm 25/22/3

ruset is 18/9 but just lost a large pot and is pretty surely tilting

PsychoDad (villain) is 18/18/4, seems like a pretty good, thinking TAG

fulltiltpoker Game #3551669890: Table Amber Mist (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:52:35 ET - 2007/09/13
Seat 1: combuboom ($208.55)
Seat 2: ruset ($243.15)
Seat 3: locklear ($441.95)
Seat 4: PsychoDad315 ($198)
Seat 5: Imperatorce ($466.60)
Seat 6: 112357 ($325.70)
PsychoDad315 posts the small blind of $1
Imperatorce posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Ac Ks]
112357 folds
combuboom raises to $7
ruset calls $7
locklear calls $7
PsychoDad315 has 15 seconds left to act
PsychoDad315 raises to $47
Imperatorce folds
combuboom...

what do you do?
 
A

Alfoldem

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this is the sort of situation i learned the hard way to fold, the chances of improving on the flop must be slim with 2 callers to the original raise and a RR after that, some of your outs must be dead.
For me calling is out of the question as there are still two to act so you dont know if the preflop action will end there.
Im not aggressive enough to be re-raising from that position with AKo
Id cut my losses and fold, i hate playing oop with a drawing hand and AK from EP has cost me in cash games top often.

edit - judging by your coinflip-ometer id lean even more to a fold
 
E

evny

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100bb's i think it's a pretty ez push... esp if you've ever seen him squeeze b4...
 
ChuckTs

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If we put villain on a JJ+ and AK+ range, we're getting pot odds to call, though I think it's the worst option. It's push/fold obviously, as we want to either get to see all 5 cards, or get right out of the way.

His overbet looks a lot to me like TT-QQ; the more scared big pairs. If we push he'll only be getting like 1.3:1, and we might be able to fold out jacks and worse.

With all the dead money, I'd be more inclined to push here. We have good fold equity, and are already doing well against his range.
 
USFDoh

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This could be a case of a TAG making the overbet to make it seem like he is holding scared cards. I really don't like AK in that position even though you are probably getting odds to call.
 
J

joeeagles

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I remember hearing dbitel say in one of his videos (I believe it was the first one) that with AK he's always happy to get it all-in PF. His expertise is 6-handed play so when I heard him say it, I interpreted this as being the correct play just about every time with AK as long as the game is SH, which is what we have here.

I'm guessing that exceptions to that (if there are any) might be 1) vs players who almost never 3bet, but on $200 nl SH I doubt you have any of those, and 2) when the pot has many callers, like we have here.

I agree on Chuck's range, I think he nailed it good as far as the low side of it, and I agree with him that you probably can get many of those hands ahead of you to fold to a shove and get the $70 in the pot, and coinflip against them if he calls (although I saw your coinflip-ometer is 0 for 11 this month :( ). The only problem with coinflipping is the one afoldem mentioned about some of your outs being dead, which is also the reason why I said that when there are callers in the pot before the 3bet, the all-in PF with AK might no longer be the preferred move. That is what I'm wondering. When a SH specialist like Bitel says he's happy to get it all-in PF with AK, I kind of wonder if it also applies to scenarios like this one, when the 3bet comes after 2 players have already flat called the raise making you suspect some of your outs are gone.

Combu, you mention ruset might be on tilt after losing a big pot the hand before. Are you worried about this going 3-way even if you shove? Even if that happens you'd be getting 2 to 1 with AK and seeing 5 cards, and that doesn't sound like a bad deal at all (again, except the fact you're 0 for your last 11 and some outs might be dead).

Last, I agree with Chuck's comments about flat calling being not a great play. But since you have position on the 3better, and odds are just about correct, does anyone consider looking at a flop rather than shoving?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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(although I saw your coinflip-ometer is 0 for 11 this month :( )

which obv means i'm due and will be a 70% favorite on all future coinflips ;)

Combu, you mention ruset might be on tilt after losing a big pot the hand before. Are you worried about this going 3-way even if you shove?

wasn't really worried about that at all. i didn't think he was tilting that bad, just that very typical level where you try to see more flops than normal in order to chase your losses and get unstuck (although he was still actually up for the session as you can see). so basically i thought his range for calling my raise was fairly weak

will see if more people discuss and then i'll share my thoughts
 
TheJace

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AKs I'd shove, AKo I'd fold. Just my play. Also would depend though on their betting patterns/hand range they play.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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A thinking villain could easily be squeezing here. You have borderline LAG stats, so your raise doesn't have to mean a lot, and he won't be too worried about the callers, as they most likely won't have enough of a hand to justify calling a big reraise (as they would invariably have reraised themselves with a big hand - especially the guy who's tilting).

Chuck says we're justified in calling if we put villain on a a JJ+/AK range, I think villain's range is much wider here, maybe AJ+/77+, with a small, but significant chance of him being on a total bluff with air. He's right in saying it's push/fold though, if we call we will miss most flops and be facing a c-bet shove from villain most of the time with no idea if we're good, whereas preflop we can be somewhat more confident that we're ahead of villain's range.

I go arrrrrrrrrin here. Villain might call with AQ and he might not, he might call with a few mid pairs we're flipping with and he might not, but even if he doesn't the pot is big enough to be worth taking down.
 
vanquish

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I like a shove here too, but I've been squeezed so much in the past I put them on too wide a range too often.
 
joosebuck

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squeeze possibilities + dead money if coinflipping = shove, methinks.
 
C

Craized

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I know I'm going to lose a lot of respect for asking this, and sorry for the derail but... what are the numbers? I see them on lots of these posts and don't know what to make of them :eek:


I'm 25/22/3

ruset is 18/9

PsychoDad (villain) is 18/18/4
 
ChuckTs

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Nothing wrong with not knowing what they mean. They're stats that are pulled from pokertracker. They're used to illustrate what style of player they belong to is.

They represent VP$IP/PFR%/AF.

VP$IP = Voluntarily put money into the pot = the percentage of their hands they either limp/raise/call a raise with preflop. It represents how loose or tight they are PF.

PFR% = Preflop raise percentage = percentage of hands they raise with preflop. It represents how aggressive they are preflop.

AF = Aggression factor = the average ratio of [bets+raises]:[calls] for every street. It represents how aggressive they are overall.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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basically i think dorkus nailed it in that others were probably putting villain on a range too tight. although even against that tighter range, it shows to be a +EV shove, which is why i think folding is not very good here

for villain, this is about as ideal of a squeeze opportunity as you'll see. i'm raising 22% of hands so my range is very wide. ruset's tilt-call represents very little, and the next player's is almost never something that can call that large a reraise. there's a good chance he could make a big reraise here with any two cards and it would be +EV for him in the long run

here's a part not to be overlooked: he's 18/18. even though this is a raise, the fact that' he's 18/18 makes a very big difference from if he was, say 30/18 (although i'd admittedly make the same move if he were 30/18 because this was just too ideal a squeeze opportunity). but a player who's raising nearly every pot he plays is an especially likely candidate to try a squeeze play, even if their raise % is rather low. his stats show someone who's likely keenly aware of the importance of aggression and taking the lead preflop. and although he's out of position in the unlikely event he gets a caller, the pot will be so large that it may actually be an advantage, as he'll get the chance to fire the first big bullet into the pot and take it down anyway a fair amount of the time

and i agree with chuck that the size of the raise does not look like an incredibly strong hand, and i couldn't imagine it being better than JJ, possibly QQ

so i shoved. basically figured, if you can get dealt AA or KK on the most perfect squeeze opportunity ever, and then overraise it, well god bless you sir. he "tanked" and folded. can't say for sure if he was saving face or actually had a hand like AQs/JJ, but i'd lean towards the former
 
TheJace

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Well if you're raising 22% of your hands then I'd def shove here.
 
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