[200NL] AJo UTG, multistreet problem.

This hand gave me pause on every street except preflop. I think the flop decision is the most interesting, and I think I played the river wrong.

The button is a nit: 15/8/3.5, 18% WTSD, etc. 3-bets only 2.6% over a large sample. His call preflop I can only interpret as set mining.

The big blind is fun: 48/18/3.2, 42% WTSD, over 150 hands, and donks 54% of the time on the flop.

Okay, so the hand:

--------------------
HAND #1
--------------------

party poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $200 (100 bb)
BTN: $257.19 (128.6 bb)
SB: $201 (100.5 bb)
BB: $268.37 (134.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $210.30 (105.2 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J A
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, BTN calls $8, SB folds, BB calls $6

Flop: ($25) T A 5 (3 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10, BTN folds

Turn: ($45) K (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30

River: ($105) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Thoughts on flop, turn and river? If I bet the river, how much, and how (unless I shove) do I respond to him check/raising me?

I don't really want to bloat the pot too much with my hand, but at the same time the bb donking out is almost always something that you should raise against, like a fd or a weaker ace. I'm kinda torn there, but I don't think calling down is that bad.

As played, the river is definitely a bet. Tons of Ax/Tx/random other hands you're missing value from.

river seems like a def. value bet

Potentially interesting side-note: This was near the end of my -11BI session, and I think the reason I didn't bet the river was because I was just so sick of getting shafted and check/raised with the nuts in these situations. Subtle form of tilt, but looking at it today with fresh eyes, I agree that I missed value. And that value was probably on the order of several hours worth of win-rate.

Question FP: Just calling the flop to see what the nit does behind? And at the same time guessing/hoping that the donk will bet the turn as well?

NineLions said:

Question FP: Just calling the flop to see what the nit does behind? And at the same time guessing/hoping that the donk will bet the turn as well?

Click to expand...

That was the plan. I wanted to know if the nit liked this flop before I continued. Though, in hindsight, there aren't that many ways for the nit to like the flop. Really just TT and 55, and maybe a flushdraw. So my worrying about the nit was a bit.

Whether the donk bets the turn or not is not of that great importance, if only the button folds. Because if the donk decides to check the turn, I have position and can valuebet.

If we raise the flop, and nit obediently folds, the question becomes what our plan for the rest of the hand is. Do we bet any turn? Bet the turn with the intention of checking back the river? Which cards are scare cards for us?