200NL - AA slows down on turn
Playing a decent reg, with some distinguishing features: Over 1.4k hands, he's only 4-bet 0.3% of the time, and he folds to 3-bets 75% of the time.
I'm on the button with AA, reg opens UTG. I 3-bet to $25, he tanks for a few seconds, then calls. I'm not superpicky with timing tells
, but perhaps it's noteworthy. His range in this spot - calling a 3-bet OOP - is obviously tight.
The flop comes K-9-4, two diamonds, the king is one of them. Neither of my aces are of diamonds.
He checks to me, I bet. Again, he tanks for a little bit, and then calls. This time, I trust the timing tell a bit more. Preflop, he might have been occupied with another table, but people tend to watch 3-bet pots more closely and it seems a little unlikely that he was terribly busy elsewhere. Not impossible, just takes the probability down a notch.
The turn is an offsuit 6, which is about as blank as they come. And here is my decision point: Do I bet again?
I didn't, and here's why:
He's not likely to have a set, mostly because even though he very rarely 4-bets, KK still has to be discounted somewhat, and 44 isn't in his range all that often (he's definitely the type to fold small PPs to 3bets OOP), but 99 is 100% in there.
He's also very unlikely to have a flushdraw. It would have been more likely if the king had been offsuit, but since it isn't, it takes away about half of the flushdraw combos he could have (AKs, AQs, KQs, QJs and MAYBE JTs).
He could be calling bullshit on me with a hand like TT-QQ. And AK and KQs are likely in his range.
So I give him (adjusted somewhat for likelyhood) 4 combos of sets, let's say half of TT-QQ makes 9 combos of that, two combos of flushdraws (that I'm not sure he'd play passively), 6 combos of AK and 3 combos of KQs.
He had a high turn AF. He also had a high (39%) bet-river%, indicating that he's capable either of bluffing the river, or value betting thin, or both. Someone who's a nit on the river is someone with <20%.
I really don't want to be checkraised by AK on the turn, and I fear that's exactly what he'd do with about half his range, most of which I beat. So I consider how bad a free card is. The answer is "not very" since he won't have many outs on average; queens could be outs if he has KQ, and he only has a flushdraw (9 outs) less than 10% of the time. His underpairs are two-outers. Furthermore, he will often fold his underpairs, but may bet them for value on the river. QQ/JJ must look pretty safe to bet if I check back the turn on a K-high board.
So I check, intending to call the river (obviously raising if it's an ace), or bet if checked to. I'm not intending to play for stacks, but will grudgingly call if he checkraises the river thanks to pot odds
The river is a jack, I feel a sharp pain in my poker soul because I'm "obviously" outdrawn by JJ, he bets $69 into a $112 pot, and I snapcall.