200nl 6max top two pair vs beluga raise

CAN I FOLD 2 PAIR HERE I DUNNO GUYS

Villain's kinda sloppy at 21/14/4 (33%fq), 3.7 aggression on the turn, 20% wtsd, I dunno what else you want. I've been aggro, stealing lots and stuff.

It's easy when you're running bad to just assume he's got a set or a magical KT here, wasn't and still am not sure if this is ok getting it in here.

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $192.30 (96.2 bb)
Hero (MP): $200 (100 bb)
CO: $330.50 (165.3 bb)
BTN: $366.65 (183.3 bb)
SB: $175.75 (87.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with Q J
Hero raises to $7, CO calls $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($22) Q 5 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, CO calls $14, BB calls $14

Turn: ($64) J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, CO raises to $100, BB folds, Hero ...

I assume we either fold or shove and get called, right?

Shoving means we put in another 135 for a 422 pot, so we need to win 32% of the time.

We have that much equity if we assume he does not flat with QQ preflop and goes for the beluga with sets, QJ and Q9s.

Board: Qh 5c 9s Jc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.818% 13.64% 18.18% 66 88.00 { QcJh }
Hand 1: 68.182% 50.00% 18.18% 242 88.00 { 99, 55, QJs, Q9s, QJo }

If you can add a few AQ, J9 or QT, it becomes a nice shove. If he flats with QQ, it becomes a bad one. Not too sure about villains ranges at 200nl 6max, tbh.

Given his turn aggression, I really think his range is way wider than what BS (lol) is proposing. I do enjoy jamalaming here.

Given his likely preflop range, our hand is a glorified bluff catcher. Q9 oughtn't be in his range. JTs could be, but would he raise with that?

On the other hand, he's laying us 208:66, with $80ish behind. If he currently has you beat, you almost always have 4 outs to beat him, which is at least worth something and if that's the case he's laying you 288:66, or 4.3:1. Nowhere near the 10:1 you're looking for, but his range consists of more than sets. If he's (semi)bluffing some of the time - clubs, naked straight draw, e.g. AT, or TT, air - and you split some of the time vs QJ, and he's just freeshowdownraising some of the rest of the time (with, say, KQ) I think you can find the call.

Old LHE saying: "Put him on a hand you can beat and call."

Preflop is a bit on the wild side for me. Tighties to your left or were you tilting a bit?

Also, you suck at being online on Skype.

Edit: I don't like shoving, since the only thing we do then is fold out his bluffs and keep him in with all of his real hands. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things but it's a few dollars of difference somewhere for sure.

F Paulsson said:

Edit: I don't like shoving, since the only thing we do then is fold out his bluffs and keep him in with all of his real hands. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things but it's a few dollars of difference somewhere for sure.

Click to expand...

unless he belugas with JT or some weird club flush draw in which case we loose value from not shoving.

I hate this hand so much. It's making my brain hurt. We're being owned, but can't do much about it. Without sounding like a broken record, I think there's something to checking the flop, but it depends on who we're dealing with. Or consider check/shoving the turn, as it has the added advantage of potentially trapping BB for an extra bet.

I don't know. It feels like we're screwed no matter what we do. When in doubt, shove. Or something.