[200NL 6max] Overpair vs Flop Raise On Drawy Board

B

bw07507

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One of my first sessions at 200NL 6max.

I have been 20/17/3.4.

Villain here seems to be ok but not great. His stats were 25/16/1.9 and he was raising 13% of cbets over 120 hands.

Do I give this up? Shove b/c of the draws? Flat and ch/shove a blank turn? I was really stuck what to do here.

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $101.55 (50.8 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $410.40 (205.2 bb)
BTN: $203.95 (102 bb)
SB: $304.45 (152.2 bb)
BB: $62.70 (31.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with T
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T
spade.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $7, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 8
spade.gif
4
spade.gif
6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $30, Hero ?
 
vanquish

vanquish

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i think this is a combo draw kinda often, you can maybe even jam
 
joos

joos

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i think jaming this would b the play to make but its hard making high variance plays when you are just moving up
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Yeah if this is like utg vs mp or utg+1 I think we should just shut down as this guy won't be making moves often enough, but co vs btn I think he'll show up with a lot more 99/55/77/bluff type hands as well as draws and stuff to make jamming ok.
 
P

Pqqp

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I agree, most likely an AQs type deal, very unlikely he hit a set or has an overpair.
 
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Jake

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Consensus has him on a drawy, partial hand. If so - does a shove really make sense? some of the time he is gonna be ahead and worried about the draws himself. Do we really want to commit all of our chips here? I prefer the flat and see what the turn brings.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Consensus has him on a drawy, partial hand. If so - does a shove really make sense? some of the time he is gonna be ahead and worried about the draws himself. Do we really want to commit all of our chips here? I prefer the flat and see what the turn brings.
The ugliness of this hand is that we're out of position. Had we had the button and been check/raised, I would have flatted every time and made a decision on the turn. But here, we're kinda screwed no matter what we do. Still, we'll want to negate his positional advantage by shoving now. We don't have much in the way of fold equity, but we do have some, and our hand should be in good shape versus his calling range (sets, nut flush draws and combo draws).
 
blankoblanco

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shove. he can show up with 99/77/55, plenty of spade draws, pair + straight draws, maybe A8 sooted? also, don't completely rule out the possibility of a bluff here. if you have any two big unpaired cards that aren't both spades, or a slew of other hands, he knows you can't possibly play back at him because of the board texture

jake, calling and re-evaluating on this board would just end up being hell. a) you're out of position without initiative. b) you hate a million turn cards. c) you've turned your hand face up to an extent, because he knows that you're 3betting all your big draws and sets every time in this spot. you're just not going to be able to make it profitable ever. shove >> fold >>>> call
 
J

Jake

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jake, calling and re-evaluating on this board would just end up being hell. a) you're out of position without initiative. b) you hate a million turn cards. c) you've turned your hand face up to an extent, because he knows that you're 3betting all your big draws and sets every time in this spot. you're just not going to be able to make it profitable ever. shove >> fold >>>> call

Okay,,, I can see the shove. If I wasn't as deep here I'd make that move in a minute. We've committed about $50 and we're effectively $150 behind.... how deep would we have to be to not shove?
 
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feitr

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Depends whether or not you think 55, 77 and 99 are in his flop raising range. Your equity vs
5s6s, 8s7s, AsJs, AsQs, As9s, As7s, As5s, 88, 44, 66, 86s, As6s, 6s7s, 57s is like 27% but if you put in 55,77,99 it is about 50%. And bluff raises would increase your equity vs his range obviously.
If villain is inclined to barrel after c/ring (and c/ring range is going to be mostly solid hands, aka ^^), i'd probably flat this then crai most turns (non spade, no 5 or 7, which lets face it would mean we no longer beat anything but a stone cold bluff, as it makes alot of straights, 2 pair, sets, flushes). That means we would get it in on almost 3/4 turns. But if villain doesn't barrel then a chck/chck turn is really bad, and so i think shoving vs a bad villain is fine, but if this was a solid player i would be quite tempted to outright fold, unless villain is inclined to c/r/aggro/likely to barrel in which case i think crai on turn is best. And vs real aggro player, good or bad, you could crai any turn. Where shoving > crai, imo, is obviously when villain might check back turn, but ofc if that is the case, you can narrow his range fairly well to combo type draws/air that has given up, and obviously in the case where villain is bad and likely to stack off wide on the flop.
I just think that putting too much weight on c/r flop% over a small sample has room to level yourself into a very bad play, as it doesn't take somebody to hit many hands to have a very high c/r flop%.

If villain is inclined to stack off with non-spade pair + GSs, then it probably becomes a pretty clear shove, considering that villain will have 55, 77, 99 in his range almost surely in that case. Becomes 55:45 with any suited pair + GS instead of just spades 56s, 87s, AsJs, AsQs, As9s, As7s, As5s, 88, 44, 66, As6s, 67s, 57s, 55, 77, 99 and + bluff raises obviously makes shoving far and above the best option.

Anyways just some thoughts, but shoving as a default here seems real spewy to me vs a solid player (which villain probably isn't) who we haven't a real good idea of his flop c/r tendency (19% over 120 hands i'd give almost no weight whatsoever...it only takes a couple of decent flops to get that %), bluff frequency, etc. Because, as you can see in the first line, vs a solid value c/r range we are crushed.
 
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