re: Poker & [200NL 6max] Overpair vs Flop Raise On Drawy Board
Depends whether or not you think 55, 77 and 99 are in his flop raising range. Your equity vs
5s6s, 8s7s, AsJs, AsQs, As9s, As7s, As5s, 88, 44, 66, 86s, As6s, 6s7s, 57s is like 27% but if you put in 55,77,99 it is about 50%. And bluff raises would increase your equity vs his range obviously.
If villain is inclined to barrel after c/ring (and c/ring range is going to be mostly solid hands, aka ^^), i'd probably flat this then crai most turns (non spade, no 5 or 7, which lets face it would mean we no longer beat anything but a stone cold bluff, as it makes alot of straights, 2 pair, sets, flushes). That means we would get it in on almost 3/4 turns. But if villain doesn't barrel then a chck/chck turn is really bad, and so i think shoving vs a bad villain is fine, but if this was a solid player i would be quite tempted to outright fold, unless villain is inclined to c/r/aggro/likely to barrel in which case i think crai on turn is best. And vs real aggro player, good or bad, you could crai any turn. Where shoving > crai, imo, is obviously when villain might check back turn, but ofc if that is the case, you can narrow his range fairly well to combo type draws/air that has given up, and obviously in the case where villain is bad and likely to stack off wide on the flop.
I just think that putting too much weight on c/r flop% over a small sample has room to level yourself into a very bad play, as it doesn't take somebody to hit many hands to have a very high c/r flop%.
If villain is inclined to stack off with non-spade pair + GSs, then it probably becomes a pretty clear shove, considering that villain will have 55, 77, 99 in his range almost surely in that case. Becomes 55:45 with any suited pair + GS instead of just spades 56s, 87s, AsJs, AsQs, As9s, As7s, As5s, 88, 44, 66, As6s, 67s, 57s, 55, 77, 99 and + bluff raises obviously makes shoving far and above the best option.
Anyways just some thoughts, but shoving as a default here seems real spewy to me vs a solid player (which villain probably isn't) who we haven't a real good idea of his flop c/r tendency (19% over 120 hands i'd give almost no weight whatsoever...it only takes a couple of decent flops to get that %), bluff frequency, etc. Because, as you can see in the first line, vs a solid value c/r range we are crushed.