The river bet is... Well, tricky. Most solid regs 4-bet QQ in his spot preflop, but if that's 100% in his range, then the river bet is good. If he can have KQs, it's great. But if QQ is unlikely, and he's not loose enough preflop to flat 3bets with KQs, then we're just getting folds from TT (unless you have a really spewy image) and get owned by JJ.
If I were villain, there would be no value for you in betting river, because I would have blockbet the river with queens, and while TT and JJ are equally likely, I'm folding TT to a bet, and I'm probably going for a river checkraise versus an opponent with a large bet-river%.
Originally Posted by Monoxide
Hmmmmmm.....just curious on why you just flat the turn bet on such an interesting card like Jh, if your range on opponent is 100% correct then flatting here is fine but....say he picked up a draw, wouldnt you be losing value here with AK by not raising? The $28 half pot bet just seems so weak, not sure exactly what he would rep here with that but it doesnt feel particularily strong.
I don't like raising the turn, because there's so very few draws he could have. His range is very narrow here and the only plausible draw I can give him is AhQh (or maybe AhKh, but we stand nothing to gain from raising vs. that hand, and it's very doubtful that he wouldn't 4-bet that pre). And that's the only hand we beat that might call a raise, and that we are relatively worried about sucking out. Most of the rest of the time, he has a hand that he's betting for protection (like QQ who thinks he might be good and doesn't want an ace to roll off) and will simply fold to a raise, or a bluff/semibluff like AQ or 99 who hopes to fold out TT or QQ. Versus these hands, it's better to just call because raising doesn't gain us anything (and in the worst possible case, he'll shove over our raise and bluff us off the pot) and if we raise into his sets, then... Yeah, that's not good either.