[200NL 6Max] I bluff the river with a missed draw.
Preflop call is not standard. I always call with JTs, but J9s is a little marginal. Still, he did not c-bet very often (and his double-barreling frequency was also low) so I decided to look at a flop with a speculative hand, because I will often get to see the turn as well.
Villain is 39/18, steals 36 (so he's positionally aware), c-bets 37% with a WTSD of 32%. Sample isn't huge; about 350 hands. I had a note on him that he plays draws passively.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
by Stoxpoker (http://www.stoxpoker.com/).
Replay This Hand (http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/hand/7672/replay/)
Hero (BTN): $212.55 (106.3 bb)
CO: $215.30 (107.7 bb)
MP: $346.76 (173.4 bb)
BB: $320.72 (160.4 bb)
SB: $223.85 (111.9 bb)
: Hero is BTN with 9
MP folds, CO raises to $7
, Hero calls $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
: ($22) 4[image: http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/images/emoticons/club.gif] 6[image: http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/images/emoticons/spade.gif] 7[image: http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/images/emoticons/club.gif] (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $8.44
, Hero raises to $24
, BB folds, CO calls $15.56
: ($70) 6[image: http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/images/emoticons/heart.gif] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
: ($70) 8[image: http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/images/emoticons/heart.gif] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $45
I think Belgo coined the "FP Theorem" recently, after I said that you should basically always fire a second barrel with a strong draw on the turn because your fold equity is so great. That's still true, but doesn't apply here, because he called a raise OOP on the flop and the board actually made any made hand of mine even less likely. So I decide to let my outs materialize, unsurprisingly miss, but find a new hand I can represent. So I go for it.
Works often enough to be worth it?