200nl 6max, AK squeeze deep stacked

Villain is Rillar, a solid lag/tag player who I have some history with. He's 25/21, %63 fold to 3bet, %3.2 4bet, and he knows that I'll squeeze pretty light here. The player in the middle is a fish.

I'm torn between the facts that I know his utg range is tight, as will his utg 4bet range be tight, but then again he knows that I know this, so this is a great spot to 4bet light and get me off a hand like AK.

Thoughts?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $250 (125 bb)
BB: $207.90 (104 bb)
UTG: $1,040 (520 bb)
MP: $192.35 (96.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $458.15 (229.1 bb)
BTN: $88.05 (44 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K A
UTG raises to $8, MP calls $8, Hero raises to $35, 3 folds, UTG raises to $100, MP folds, Hero raises to $458.15 and is all-in

Absolutely hate it. You're 200+ BBs deep, how do you even consider stacking AK vs. an UTG raiser? If he's leveling you then folding would be a small mistake. If he's not leveling you you're making a huge mistake putting in such a deep stack. I'd almost consider flatting the initial raise and then maybe attempting to make a move on the flop which will be extremely difficult for him to play correctly 200+ BBs deep with his pretty strong range. What's his vpip/pfr for UTG?

given the deep stacks, I'm considering flatting. I hate getting it in here tbh. You're NEVER folding out a better hand, as I see no reason a guy like this is 4-betting JJ/QQ here, he should know better. And there's no way in hell this guy is stacking worse. So where's the value?

16/16 from ep, tighter than I thought.

I think I can really easily out-level myself here (which is what I think I did), but I really do think his range is pretty wide. I guess it shrinks exponentially once he 4bets, but I just feel like it's a prime 4bet bluffing spot. Sometimes I just give my opponents too much credit for running plays like that though.

dsvw56 said:

given the deep stacks, I'm considering flatting. I hate getting it in here tbh. You're NEVER folding out a better hand, as I see no reason a guy like this is 4-betting JJ/QQ here, he should know better. And there's no way in hell this guy is stacking worse. So where's the value?

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You mean flatting the original raise or the 4bet?

ow long have you been with him at this particular table. If it was a while on this particular game, had he started to loosen up with his reraises since his stack has increased throwing his chips around, or was he only coming over top with real hands in these similar type of situations? How often is he coming over top of your reraises preflop? In similar situations what have you seen him flat call your reraise with utg? has he ever flat called you with high pairs? he could just be throwing chips around, 100 is almost somewhat of a value raise, it could mean power, but it also could mean he's trying to save money if he has to get away from a reraise.

losing 100 of his stack here, it doesn't really hurt him, but I don't see why he would come back overtop of you unless your are known to reraise his raises with position, if he's been simply calling your reraises I might give him credit for this one if he hadn't been coming over top often and giving me respect for the hands that I raise. Plus you said the player in the middle is a fish, so I'm assuming that if the villain flat calls your reraise the fish will too (correct me if you think thats not likely). Obviously the villain wants an isolated pot, I'm assuming he knows the fish is going to call if he simply flat calls and it seems he is trying to protect his hand by reraising to get the fish out. Is the villain really capable of reraise bluffing here with the fish in the middle?

What I think makes his reraise range wide is that if your a heavy button raiser and he thinks your a button raiser I think that would mentally makes his reraise range pretty wide especially if he's seen you fold to this reraise bet before. If he's seen you come back over top of his reraises more than once or twice, he's gonna start to decrease his reraise range. At that point I think for you to go all I think you gotta be pretty sure with your instincts that he doesn't have a pair, or have at least seen him fold to a deepstack reraise like this preflop before because there is no way you want a call here with AK. Otherwise if you call is he the type of player that will slow down to a called reraise, or is he guaranteed c-bet. I think your best bet is to call here, but if you feel very confident about your read the reraise can be good. If this was like the first time he had really reraised or tried to mess with you that day, I'd probably give him credit this particular time and fold. The risk reward with that reraise is just so risky because if your read is wrong and you don't know if he'll fold to the reraise your pretty much behind any hand he calls with except maybe a split if he has ak. So your read really has to be spot on for you to come back over top.

ChuckTs said:

You mean flatting the original raise or the 4bet?

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The first raise, sorry about that.

i pretty much agree with zach, though i'm not as adamant, i just think you're outleveling yourself here pretty hard far too often. however curious... results?

I dunno what "outleveling" means. But I'll just say that players with 5x the table max buy-in tend to play looser, regardless of position.

i mean that's he giving his opponent too much credit for thinking on a level of "i know that he knows that i know..." such as indicated in the OP, in a situation involving deep stacks and typically tight ranges

combuboom said:

i mean that's he giving his opponent too much credit for thinking on a level of "i know that he knows that i know..." such as indicated in the OP, in a situation involving deep stacks and typically tight ranges

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LOL! I've done that.

I really don't like it. Villain might show up with a bluff here occasionally but i completely agree with the outleveling aspect. The risk is just so great if you are wrong and this is probably a geniune hand alot of the time. Obv an easy shove if you are like 120bbs deep but not when 230.

I don't think there is anything wrong with squeezing but after the 4 bet just fold. There is just no way you can get money in good here unless villain is fos. You are right that it is a perfect 4B bluffing spot, as villain can threaten your deep stack without getting close to commiting himself, but you just can't get the money in good and you'd have to have some pretty good reads/history to make a shove profitable here.

Is 3.4% 4B the times when facing a 3B or the 4B range? It is really low for the former i think but extremely high if the latter.

I'm not sure exactly how hem works with the two ranges, but one is called 4bet % and is something like %10 for this guy, and the other is 4bet range, which is the %3.2. It's high.

He had kings. I hate my shove regardless.

At least we both giggled about it after and both agreed at the table that it was terrible :/

ChuckTs said:

I'm not sure exactly how hem works with the two ranges, but one is called 4bet % and is something like %10 for this guy, and the other is 4bet range, which is the %3.2. It's high.

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Just a guess, but I think 4-bet % is the percentage of time he 4-bets when faced with a 3-bet. I think the 4-bet range is the percentage of hands he 4-bets with. So his range would be roughly top 3.2%.