200nl 6max: 88 overpair in 3bet pot

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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This is a perfect example of a spot I've run into several times where I'm clueless what to do. Would like advice on every part of the hand, from 3betting (vs flatting) pf to cbetting the flop and what to do on the turn.

Villain is a 23/16/2.4 over <300 hands. %35 ats, 0% fold to 3bet, 19 wtsd. 38 fold to cbet, much smaller in 3bet pots (also a small sample). Not sure how much to look into his stats here since we have a relatively small sample size. I've been pretty lag.

This guy seems kind of stationy, and I'm curious what to do vs more solid regs in spots like this too. For example vs a 24/20, or a 16/14 tag.

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $165.95 (83 bb)
MP: $199 (99.5 bb)
CO: $201.75 (100.9 bb)
BTN: $212.50 (106.3 bb)
Hero (SB): $401.95 (201 bb)
BB: $40.75 (20.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 8
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8
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3 folds, BTN raises to $8, Hero raises to $26, BB folds, BTN calls $18

Flop: ($54) 2
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4
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4
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(2 players)
Hero bets $35, BTN calls $35

Turn: ($124) Q
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(2 players)
Hero ...
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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Against this particular player, I think I would prefer to just call preflop. He has never folded to a 3bet, so the most likely result is we are going to be oop in a big pot with a pair of 8s if we 3bet him based on the information that we have. I dont think 3betting here gives us much fold equity, but it does put us in a better position to stack him if we hit our set, at the cost of being in a difficult spot if we don't.

As played I would bet the flop like you did. My best guess at this point is that he either has a pocket pair or a flush draw, although it is also possible that he could be floating. I'm not really sure how I would play the turn, it's such an awkward spot with stacksizes, and the fact villain is stationy. I almost want to just shove to try and get him off 99-JJ and flush draws without a Q.
 
F

feitr

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So read dependent. Villain is 0/? for fold to 3B? Does villain like to float 3 bet pots (if villain isn't folding 3 bet pots pre and isn't folding to cbets what does s/he do? Call to showdown? Fold to double barrell? Intentionally float?

If villain is likely to think you are attacking his steal and really doesn't like to fold to a 3 bet in position, i'd be pretty tempted to crai here. You might even get a free river card and be able to c/c. At least with crai, you are more likely to be committing yourself with better equity vs your oppponent's range as opposed to double barrelling and having villain call or rai etc, since part of villain's range is going to be overs that peeled hoping to hit/float the turn.

I don't like a c/f here (since you are miles ahead of somebody who has a 0% fold to 3b and small fold to cbet in 3b pot), but if you don't c/f you are pretty close to being committed, so i don't mind checking turn and then checking river if villain checks turn and crai if villain floats turn. The problem with all this is if the 3b stats are a little off then villain's range might be alot tighter than it seems.

Logic for all of ^^ being the following:

c/f is incredibly weak vs somebody who has a wide range in a 3bet pot, especially when you have a very good board for your hand. If you are intending to reraise this pf, cbet, then c/f turn on a good board vs somebody who is likely to call both pf and flop cbet...well it is rather obvious that this is beyond spew.

Double barrelling is going to fold out most of villain's "pure" floating range (so overs be it jts or ak or at or whatever the hell villain calls with), but if villain calls/rai we are pretty much committed and quite frankly in deep shit vs a range that is calling.

So checking turn then crai or checking river if villain checks behind turn at least allows us to be committed against a much better range since villain's range includes some "pure" floats and semi bluffs like a fd or whatever (tho fds probably check behind).

But again this all depends on reads and so much of what i said might not be correct for this particular villain. But crai is probably the line i'd take vs some1 i'm pretty sure is calling my "resteal" with a wide range and is inclined to try and outplay me in position (ie. float turn...or float river).
 
blankoblanco

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i think preflop is good vs any player with "aggressive" tendencies, be it 24/20 or 16/14 or anything around there. i'd be a little more prone to call in the BB than in the SB for the obvious reasons that we're closing the action and not prone to getting squeezed. i don't think a flat in the SB is bad really, but i like this more

flop i'm betting with most of my range and i'd bet here certainly. i think your size is good given texture and pot size

the turn is really ****ing sticky. you said he's kind of stationy so i guess it's possible to get value from 55-77, just don't know how likely you think that is, and it's a very tiny range. can of course get value from flush draws that didn't raise the flop -- assuming they don't do the tricky ass turn raise with it.. that would suck for you. but i way favor checking vs him and i also prefer checking against more solid regs since you'd be basically turning your hand into a bluff against them (yes, it's possible if your image/history is a certain way that they'd float flop expecting you to double barrel often and so on, but that's semi-extreme and not all that usual unless you're going out of your way to play with regs a lot imo)

i like checking vs. him so much because he doesn't really fold to continuation bets very often and this is a floaty flop, so i'd be checking to c/r all-in. sucks when he has AQ/KQ but there's be more than enough other stuff in his range to justify it; it's a floaty flop and his PF range is wide/he doesn't fold to 3bets anyway

i actually would probably c/r the turn all-in against most players who i thought were very capable of floating.. this guy just happens to fit the bill very well. against the right type of player (much lower fold to 3bet%, much higher fold to c-bet%, all around more solid) i could actually see a c/f, but not against this villain

cliffnotes: i also c/r all-in
 
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feitr

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Yea the more i think about it the more i'm convinced that a crai is the only way to play this hand.

We can't fold on such a perfect board as this vs a villain who is going to call 3Bs with a wide range then peel the flop with a wide range. So it just comes down to how can we get the money in the middle while keeping villain's range as wide as possible. And obviously letting villain float the turn instead of double barrelling will enable us to get villain to moreorless commit with almost their entire 3B calling/flop peeling range (which is incredibly wide and which we must be crushing here).
 
Chris_TC

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With 88, I'd often flat preflop but I also raise sometimes. Either is fine.

The way this hand went down, we actually get a fantastic turn card. He's unlikely to bet 99-JJ and he's pretty likely to use the Queen to get you off your hand after calling the c-bet like he always does.
I'd c/c the turn and c/c any river. If we c/r, he'll fold all of his bluffs (which are the main portion of his range when he bets the turn).
 
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feitr

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If villain bets $80 he has $70 behind and a $280 pot, so i think it is safe to say that villain isn't going to be bluffing any river since he obviously has no FE. If villain isn't going to put more money in either way (if villain is going to try to shove on river, he is probably just as likely to call a crai with a hand like aj given 5:1 odds...both are about as dumb as the other), why let villain see a free card and give him a chance to draw out on us whereby we are forced to pay him off?

In hind sight i'd probably tend more towards flatting this pf vs this guy. Obviously 88 is way ahead of his range but that is kinda offset by the fact that you are oop and you have no FE before the turn anyways. There are going to be so many boards with overs that are going to make this hand so difficult to play a big pot oop.
 
ChuckTs

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crai seems like the best option to me, but stack sizes are just a little short, no? 120 pot, 150 left in his stack...
 
Jurn8

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what you do chuck and howd it go ?
 
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feitr

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crai seems like the best option to me, but stack sizes are just a little short, no? 120 pot, 150 left in his stack...

I don't think you want to crai hoping you have lots of FE, as much as getting the money in against the widest range you can do so. If villain bets $80, he still is going to have to fold pure floats getting 5:1 pot odds with a maximum of 1:7 in equity.
 
blankoblanco

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exactly what feitr said

chris TC, look at stacks. c/c turn and c/c river is mostly just giving him a freeroll to hit on the river with his pure floats, unless he makes an oddly tiny bet. it's really unlikely he'll bluff river again when we appear committed
 
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