200nl 6max: 44 calldown

Villain is 35/12/1.7 %3 3bet over >1.5k hands

Thoughts on the calldown? I've been pretty aggressive, probably 24/21 or something, stealing lots. He giving us a good enough price to call down or did I just get sucked in?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BTN): $202 (101 bb)
SB: $154.60 (77.3 bb)
BB: $201.15 (100.6 bb)
MP: $352.90 (176.5 bb)
CO: $269.05 (134.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 4 4
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $18, BB folds, Hero calls $11

Flop: ($38) 2 9 5 (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($62) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($62) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $20, Hero calls $20

Why don't you bet turn?

it would be a good spot to check turn if we could be confident villain has something like AK/AQ, because that allows us to play the river almost perfectly and get value on bluffs from those hands. the only problem is that he can have something like 66-88 that beats us and he might make that sort of river bet with it that you'll have to call, but he'd fold the turn with them

the flop bet and check look so weak that i actually do like a bet on the turn. if we had TT i'd still check turn behind since we can't fold out anything that beats us, although i don't think a bet can ever be terrible there

as played, i'm calling the river bet since it can be overcards often enough i think, and it'd give us some nice notes

edit: actually maybe this particular villain always set mines with those pairs (even incorrectly) and never 3bets them. if you think that's the case, this line gains a lot of merit

I don't like a turn bet here because the pot is large compared to the strength of our hand (we basically have a bluff catcher only) and whatever we can do to keep it small is right imo. As combu said the only hands we might get to fold that beat us by betting the turn are 66-88 but I really don't think they'll be in his 3betting range very often, so letting him see a free card on the river doesn't hurt us very often. By checking the turn we also induce a lot of bluff bets on the river (like I think we have here).

I like the call as well, but then again I am a station and calling is my ... well, calling.

Well I think the 66/88 part of his range is tiny regardless whether he 3bets the pf or not, just looking at combos. As played I think I have to call the river(?) but I could be wrong.

It was mentioned on stox that I should be folding this hand pf and I completely agree. I shouldn't even be in this spot.

ChuckTs said:

Well I think the 66/88 part of his range is tiny regardless whether he 3bets the pf or not, just looking at combos.

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i mean, i pretty much agree. the main reason i'd want to bet here is that possibility combined with the sheer weakness his line exudes. if it weren't for this looking like the weakest thing ever postflop, i probably wouldn't want to bet. and it's really hard to put an actual number on that. it's just one of those spots where i feel confident enough he'll fold to strength -- and not confident enough that this particular player will bluff a miss -- that everything else sort of goes out the window

not that he can't still have a 99 or a weird JJ/AA type deal, just seems unlikely (on the turn; once he bets the river it becomes more likely). the size of the flop bet throws me off and is pretty weird regardless

ChuckTs said:

It was mentioned on stox that I should be folding this hand pf and I completely agree. I shouldn't even be in this spot.

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Well, obviously you are not getting the odds to set mine. That's why I asked why you didn't bet the turn. If the plan was not to make a move at the pot post-flop, why are you calling?

BelgoSuisse said:

Well, obviously you are not getting the odds to set mine. That's why I asked why you didn't bet the turn. If the plan was not to make a move at the pot post-flop, why are you calling?

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Well, by calling the river bet he clearly thinks his hand has showdown value. Perhaps mistakenly, perhaps not, but in the context of the river action the turn action makes sense - checking the turn and then folding to the small river bet wouldn't make so much sense obv.

Preflop doesn't look that unreasonable to me. Yeah, we're not getting odds, but given that we're in position we will still be able to float the flop and steal a decent portion of the time.

The bet - check - bet line doesn't make a lot of sense. If he has a decent hand, why is he checking the turn having bet the flop, when the turn puts a few fresh draws out there? Then why does he bet the blank river? As I've said a lot before, if something doesn't make sense it's more likely to be a bluff, but having said that I don't think villain is bluffing often enough with AK/AQ/KQ/etc for the river call to be profitable.

This is most likely either (a) a flopped set or some other big hand played oddly (or played well in terms of trying to represent weakness, heh), (b) some sort of missed draw (something like AdKd - this fits with the small flop lead line as lots of players will do this with a draw) or (c) something like QT - flop c-bet, turn check to try and see a free river, river bet when he hits. I suppose QT makes the most sense but it's obviously just a solitary hand.

Basically I think as played is fine but fold river. This is either a big hand or a marginal hand thinly value betting the river too often.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

or (c) something like QT - flop c-bet, turn check to try and see a free river, river bet when he hits. I suppose QT makes the most sense but it's obviously just a solitary hand.

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QT makes the least sense cause of preflop and his stats. he never has QT here

for the same reason, there aren't that many marginal type hands in his range. a few, but mainly big pairs, sets, overcards. getting 4:1 i can't let it go since we checked the turn and i'd love to know what he played this way. we only need to be good over 20% of the time, shrug

His 3b range is probably a little broadened by the fact we've been lagtarding it up (I know I for one tend to go a little loopy occasionally despite being generally nitty when the guy to my right keeps stealing my blinds/button/etc ^^). You're probably right in that it doesn't make a lot of sense given that it's a small 3b and he's OOP, though, which seems to indicate that he wants to play with us OOP which of course seems to indicate that he has something big.

Mind you, QT pre makes about as much sense as AA post.

Preflop is close to a fold but the call is fine I think. Postflop was played absolutely perfectly. I'd expect him to show AK a very large percentage of the time.

Yeah I can see a fold Pf but I dont see anything wrong with a call here since his 3bet was so small. He has 140 behind him and we need to put in 11 bucks with 26 in the pot in position, I dont think this is a huge leak either way. His 3bet range is pretty tight so I dont understand some of these guesses, but his tight range has AK AQ show up enough to make this profitable i think, but wouldnt be shocked to see JJ looking to c/r turn hoping you are floating.

results on this one? i'm curious

oh, he had kings. Completely threw me off.

what a weirdo

he disguised his hand so well i don't think he knew what he had.