Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
Well, obviously you are not getting the odds to set mine. That's why I asked why you didn't bet the turn. If the plan was not to make a move at the pot post-flop, why are you calling?
Well, by calling the river bet he clearly thinks his hand has showdown value. Perhaps mistakenly, perhaps not, but in the context of the river action the turn action makes sense - checking the turn and then folding to the small river bet wouldn't make so much sense obv.
Preflop doesn't look that unreasonable to me. Yeah, we're not getting odds, but given that we're in position we will still be able to float the flop and steal a decent portion of the time.
The bet - check - bet line doesn't make a lot of sense. If he has a decent hand, why is he checking the turn having bet the flop, when the turn puts a few fresh draws out there? Then why does he bet the blank river? As I've said a lot before, if something doesn't make sense it's more likely to be a bluff, but having said that I don't think villain is bluffing often enough with AK/AQ/KQ/etc for the river call to be profitable.
This is most likely either (a) a flopped set or some other big hand played oddly (or played well in terms of trying to represent weakness, heh), (b) some sort of missed draw (something like AdKd - this fits with the small flop lead line as lots of players will do this with a draw) or (c) something like QT - flop c-bet, turn check to try and see a free river, river bet when he hits. I suppose QT makes the most sense but it's obviously just a solitary hand.
Basically I think as played is fine but fold river. This is either a big hand or a marginal hand thinly value betting the river too often.