200nl 6max - 2pr oop 130bb's deep

Jagsti

Jagsti

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Villain is xxxRunyonAvexxx solid winning reg stats 22/18/4. Faltting in the bb's not great I know but now I face action on the turn. What type of hands are we beating if any?


poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $252.90 (126.5 bb)
SB: $249 (124.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $267.75 (133.9 bb)
UTG: $73.85 (36.9 bb)
MP: $400.60 (200.3 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 5
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A
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UTG folds, MP raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($13) Q
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5
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A
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $9, Hero raises to $32, MP calls $23

Turn: ($77) 7
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(2 players)
Hero bets $48, MP raises to $122, Hero?
 
Last edited:
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baudib1

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I love his line. So sick. He's representing an incredibly narrow range that probably has you drawing nearly dead. Even sicker if he's doing it as a bluff.
 
tenbob

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Sick spot, unless he is running a bluff you beat damn all here. I really can't see AK taking this line either, surely he would flat the turn with it. I expect total bluffs or total monsters here. Unless you have a very specific note/read that he can do this with air I fold.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Well, you're behind AQ and sets. Somewhat unlikely he'd go crazy with AK, right? Any history about how aggressively he plays his flush draws?
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Well, you're behind AQ and sets. Somewhat unlikely he'd go crazy with AK, right? Any history about how aggressively he plays his flush draws?

Err, no but if he takes the usual line for fl draws I'd expect him to push the flop tbh as his equity is far greater than on the turn.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Err, no but if he takes the usual line for fl draws I'd expect him to push the flop tbh as his equity is far greater than on the turn.

true. But that's the only part of his range I could think that you could be ahead... :D
 
ChuckTs

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gah, fold pf! Or 3bet if he folds well to them and/or folds to cbets/barrels well.

His line is a little fishy to me. If he has a better hand on the flop he most probably just jams flop because of the draws out there. I don't see him showing up with A7 too often. I dunno, not many hands make sense to me, but there aren't many hands that we beat either aside from bluffs. I think folding is best on the turn.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Err, no but if he takes the usual line for fl draws I'd expect him to push the flop tbh as his equity is far greater than on the turn.
Ya but his fold equity is far less. Waiting til the turn & beluga'ing regs is a move I'm seeing more and more, since they give it so much more respect. Course, this isn't a beluga raise since you x/r'd the flop, but meh.

The flatting of your x/r in position implies that he thinks you're bluffing. His line allows him to get another bet from your bluffs when you bet the turn. The question is, is he doing this for value, or as a re-bluff?

His MP range certainly does carry AQ, all sets, and a few flush draws. If he were on the button or CO, I'd be more inclined to think he's making a move here.

Could we get some more stats like W$SD, turn AF? Maybe overall & turn aggression frequency? Steal % couldn't hurt either. This seems sorta close, and he can't really think your range is that strong on an AQx flop flatting from the BB. I think I'd need to see some more stats & take into account the dynamic at the table between you two in order to decide.

But you're a nit, so he prolly does this with like any two ;)
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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W$SD = 53%

Turn AF = 3.8 Total AF = 4

Steal % = 35%

No real history between us that I have noted. The table has been pretty aggro tbh with a lot of 3betting.
 
widowmaker89

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His line doesnt make too much sense here, as Chuck pointed out many hands here should be jamming the flop. That said it is true we dont beat very much here but since I dont like beleiving regs when they take lines that dont really make sense I probably dont fold. I think he has enough draws here that shipping it is probably better than calling as its pretty trivial with the size of the pot so I am probably just getting it in here.

Obviously this is close and any other reads/stats could easily change my mind but this line doesnt make sense, and with you flatting here(wtf) and leading out pretty weak after the c/r may make him think you dont really want to get it in and can get you off most of your range(which it can).

Really I just want to call because I dont beleive regs who take illogical lines. Either way you get a note on a reg here. If you were deeper I may reconsider but this is close enough that I make the call and see what he takes stupid lines to.

You folding people out there change your mind if its 100BB or is that not an issue at all since we only beat bluffs either way?
 
zachvac

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Err, no but if he takes the usual line for fl draws I'd expect him to push the flop tbh as his equity is far greater than on the turn.

Yeah but because you have a brain and know this, he also has a ton more FE on the turn because you won't count the FD as part of his range. Anyway I think flatting preflop is borderline criminal. As played I think it's a fold. I mean even though there are 2 spades it's not like there are even a ton of draws. KJ has a gutshot and other than the two spades or that he flatted your C/R with a backdoor straight draw draws aren't a huge part of his range. I think just fold here, but I'll re-iterate that imo flatting preflop here is just burning money.
 
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baudib1

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I dunno, I think four-bet jamming the flop over a check-raise looks so ridiculously strong, I don't blame him for flatting IP so hero can spew on the turn.
 
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