$20000 NLHE Full Ring: Check-folding trips on dry board

Live game. Some meta notes: I'm in for $0 in the game. I won the high hand award for the previous week -- $405, so I'm totally freerolling. I've won a couple of decent-sized pots and am up to $700ish.

Player on my left is extreme nit. Earlier he folded QQ on a wet T-high board (he was good). Hasn't raised once in two hours. If he is thinking about my image and style he probably considers me to be loose and stationy. He regaled me with several other stories that told how nitty he is.

Action: I straddled to $5, He raises to $18 UTG, 1 caller in EP, I call from straddle with Tc7c. This is the first time he's raised in 2 hours.


I check, UTG checks, MP Checks.

Turn:
I bet $30, UTG calls, MP folds.

River:
I check, villain bets $100 and has $70 behind...
Hero: folds because villain's range is 3 combos of AA??

Seems like a good fold, a tough one to make, but still most likely the right one. I am so curious- did he show?? ))
I am also thinking AA , given that it's the first time he raised, and the call on the flop suggests he isn't afraid of a 10.

Wow this is sick. Dont like straddling, but thats irrelevant. Hate the flat when we do straddle, if we know hes capable of folding overpairs (most of his range here) when are we ever getting paid here OOP if we hit big?

Does AA really check the flop and then flat the turn when he may struggle to stack the river? Over 60 hands or so he can just be fairly card dead, I dunno. What do we really beat but a bluff? Is he capable of it? Ackkk I think its a fold.

20k FR and you're sitting with 7 hundo..............

Jurn8 said:

20k FR and you're sitting with 7 hundo..............

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guessing he put too many zeroes considering he stralled to $5 and got raised to $18.

doomasiggy said:

guessing he put too many zeroes considering he stralled to $5 and got raised to $18.

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of course, that was the joke.

Knowing his table image the only hand that make sense are AK AA KK QQ. Most likely he has AA however he could be using his table image in this spot, realizing that you have a weak A or 10, and thinks he might be able to get you off, based on his table image.

Acesinthebig said:

Knowing his table image the only hand that make sense are AK AA KK QQ. Most likely he has AA however he could be using his table image in this spot, realizing that you have a weak A or 10, and thinks he might be able to get you off, based on his table image.

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why would he raise QQ here, he would flat 100%, raising would turn his hand into a bluff

If you can just convince yourself there's AK in his range you're good to go...

...but given those reads it's not f'n likely

pot was only 115 when he bet 100 so its not like its that weird a bet.


I also want to know why we dont bet the river? In the odd time has AK we will get value.

Also, im calling the river.

i dont think hes ever checking with aa unless hes dumm with the straight flush draws out. So its only one guess. 22?nop cause he raised.44?nop cause he raised so he cant have that too. Ak underrepresenting his hand?I dont think so but weve seen that before. K10s is the only hand I can think of unless he got frisky with a pocket pair and thought about craising MP with his set but worked otherwise. I would say aq and checked for pot control(chicken thinking about ak since hes tight) or K10s. I would call for info since he left the 70 behind.

I'd much rather b/f river as opposed to c/f.

So this villian, we can rule out TT/44/22 which leaves us with KK+/A,J+ & even the nittiest of all nits; I don't think we can just always narrow his range down to AA.

Even nits gets frustrated after a while and will open wider than usual or whatever. Plenty of A,J+ and AA & even KK in this spot because who checks behind AA or good A,x hands in a 3way pot here? I think nits like this are likely to turn their hand face up in these spots and will highly probably bet the flop. His river bet is interesting though; what does he expect you to call here apart from exactly t,x?

I think there are times you might see KK/A,J+ and of course AA sometimes in this spot but thats about it but I think bet/folding the river is probs the best line as we always get the value from AJ+/KK hands and if we're shoved on we can quite happily fold knowing he has exactly AA in this spot.