$2000 NLHE Full Ring: Value-bet with A-K high?

TenJack

TenJack

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Hero has been TAG. Playing fairly standard for this game. 350 BB

Villain is LAG player. Have a good read that he is going to 4-bet QQ+. Likes to make sorta splashy hero-calls on the river, a bit of ego. He also saw me flat an open with AKo versus a really nitty player, so he has commented that I only 3-bet trashy stuff. Previusly called down a river bet with A-J high. 400BB

Action folds to villain in MP2
Villain raises to 60
Folds to her in HJ with AhKh
Hero 3-bets to 250
Folds back to v, calls.

Flop: 2s 7s 6d Pot: ~500

V bets 350
Hero calls.

Turn: 9h Pot: 1200

V check
Hero bets 600
V calls.

River: 2c Pot: 2400

V checks
Hero bets 1000
V tanks, calls.

V shows AsQs


Is this bet okay? I think villain has probably 88+, ATs+ ATo+. I felt like he is 4-betting QQ, KK, AA with a fairly high frequency, so that leaves 88, 99, TT, JJ to beat me so 21 combos that i loose to versus ( if we give him all of the AQ and the AJs and ATs combos) 24 combos i beat.
 
Hujiko

Hujiko

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I agree with your assessment as villain is a LAG he probably would 4 bet AA, KK, AK and even QQ and that he will defend wide especially with deep stacks. The action on the flop-turn is not specific aggressive as both make a bet and a call no bet-raises.

An over-pair to the board is likely to play more aggressive certainly if hes a LAG, so would not give him so many over-pairs on the river. On the other hand I would also not give him so many ATs+ hands on the river either, what ATs+ hands will he continue with to the river?

So I would estimate that he might have 88, TT(50%) assuming that he will turn bet JJ and TT(50%) and 99 (is a set) giving him 9 pairs. As for AT+ I would say lets count ATs+ of spades and all AQ and AJ with the A of spade in it is 1+4+4 is 9 combos (<= optimistic view).


Your value bet is thin but still has to be right more then 50% of the time, so its close and all depends if he really will continue on the turn and call the river with more then 9 combos of AT+ hands.
 
Q

QA77

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I don’t mind the bet but I wouldn’t be value betting with it. It would be to fold out some strong hands.
 
F

formertroll

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i don't like the bet. what if he tanks and shoves? you have to fold. a lot of the hands that would tank/shove would also check back to you out of fear you are slow playing.
 
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