$2000 NLHE Full Ring: Check a third time with SF?

TenJack

TenJack

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Villain is TAG, pretty standard thinking player. Bit of a rock preflop. 300 BB

Hero is LAG. Not been using the c-bet as much, as the table is playing very aggressive so there is a lot of coming over the top on dry boards. covers villain, around 400BB

Action folds to hero in HJ
Hero raises to 80 with 9s 8s
co, bttn, sb fold
Villain in BB raises to 300
Hero calls.

Flop: 7s Ts Js Pot: 610

Hero checks
Villain bets 300
Hero calls

Turn: 4d Pot: 1210

Hero checks
Villain checks

River: Kd

Hero checks

Can i check the river here and expect to see him bet?

His range pre is probably a bit wider, includes some K trash like k7 and weakish broadways like KT. He could have also had standard 3-bet cards like AsKs or AsQs.

On the flop, he really shouldnt continue unless he has at least TP with a spade, such a wet flop hits a lot of my lp range. I can check call with a draw like a lone 8s or 9s, as well as a flopped flush that is fairly strong. I could check-call with a set trying to pair the board, or a random 2 pair.

Turn i check, i really expected to see another barrel. He checks back, so he either has total air or someting pretty strong. I decide to check the river, as i believe that he can't call a bet without a hand that would be comfortable betting. Is this logic completely stupid?
 
Misaki

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maybe the logic is not completely stupid but as you said he is just pretty standard thinking player with tight range preflop. His bet sizing on flop looks really weak. On that kind of board I expect bigger sizing with strong hand. Maybe he plays this way with fd or he just likes to bet 1/2 on mono boards every time and expect people to fold. He didn't 2nd barrel what I often expect. Probably he tried to realize his equity with hands like AK, AQ or lower Axs if he 3bets them like A5s. It's hard for me to put him on range because I don't know what people like to 3bet in live games.
Anyway on river I prefer to bet myself. The reasons are really simple. I don't want to see a bet from him like 1/3-1/2 what we can expect as thin valuebet from his potential AK. Mostly he will call a range which he would bet if we check too him. His BB range is probably very tight so he doesn't have to many combinations which he can bluff on river. Also he can think we missed a flush draw and he will pay our big bet with his Kx hand. If we check I don't expect him to call our check/raise. so I prefer bet river because all of this reasons.
 
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braveslice

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Misaki’s comments sound reasonable to me.

I think in general calling ranges are always much wider than betting ranges this is imo double true against players who do not bluff that much. Just an example hand here T7, would call most of the time?

[Thinking aloud] But if we expect him to be either really strong or very weak and we expect him not to bluff. If he is super strong all the money goes in whoever bets first. If he is relatively strong he will bet and call a raise. If he is medium strong he will not bet but call a lead. So the difference comes from him being medium/ quite strong. If he is medium you win ~1/2pot extra by leading, if he is quite strong you win ~1.2pot extra by check/raising.
EV=x*0.5-(1-x)*1.2 = 0 -> x= 70%

70% seems to indicate that it’s more profitable lead than check raise if we assume he is medium strength 70% or more times compared to quite strong. Close? Yeah, and also my math is always wrong.

As LAG I can see you raising lot of shit on that flop generally? If so why not just raise?
 
Alucard

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Lead turn bet river IMO
cause he'd check back most turns with overpairs except with a diamond & might check back river

As played check raising river doesn't make much sense cause he'd usually fold Kxes other than a set
 
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braveslice

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Lead turn bet river IMO
cause he'd check back most turns with overpairs except with a diamond & might check back river

As played check raising river doesn't make much sense cause he'd usually fold Kxes other than a set

Not even tiny vote for raising flop?
 
TenJack

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Ok this makes sense. Honestly i think i was just a bit excited about flopping such a monster that i wanted to believe that he had flopped something good, too. No excuse for screwing it up so bad, but i do that sometimes. :eek::eek:

I check, he bets about 3/4, i raise, and he folds the king-high face up. :(:(

Thanks for the analysis! im sorta sick about how i played this myself honestly, (knew that even before i posted) but just wanted to see if there was anything i did right, or any argument for how i decided to do it!
 
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Lead turn bet river IMO
cause he'd check back most turns with overpairs except with a diamond & might check back river

As played check raising river doesn't make much sense cause he'd usually fold Kxes other than a set


Agree. The turn lead can be a small size such as 1/3 pot to make it look like a weak bet. There are still tons of hands going here and he leads the flop, make us think he hit sth on the flop. Most cases he will call the turn. Mis bet here is a huge misvalue unless the opponent is a super aggressor and you think he will triple barrel.

River should go for value.....I agree most of the time you should check the strong hand to protect your range but SF is way too strong and definitely you want to get value from this hand in a live game....
 
Alucard

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Not even tiny vote for raising flop?


Raising flop seems too strong for me and unnecessary. He'd prob call the raise & fold turn
but hard to get paid 3 streets here unless he has QQ+ with a diamond
 
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braveslice

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Raising flop seems too strong for me and unnecessary. He'd prob call the raise & fold turn
but hard to get paid 3 streets here unless he has QQ+ with a diamond

Any hints when to use call - lead turn lines properly?
 
Alucard

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Any hints when to use call - lead turn lines properly?


lol I'm no coach :D
but in times where you know that you'd check turn on a bad card IP or wanting to pot control (if you are IP) or not happy with the turn which helps Vs range or similar but would probably call a decent size on river to bluff catch
ex- Overpair on a Txx flop & turn is a T
 
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