$2000 NLHE Full Ring: Airball Setup

Z

Zybomb

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$2000 NL HE Full Ring: Airball Setup

5/10 NL Effective Stacks $1700

$20 Straddle

3 limps, I complete from the BB with 8
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7
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Straddler checks.

Flop comes Q
diamond.gif
5
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3
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We check as do the other 4 players

Turn Q
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We're first to act, and yea it's 4 opponents, but it's pretty apparent no one likes this board and we could certainly have some random queen in our hand that we checked, so since we're just ultra stabby lately we lead out for $65 into a $100. Yea we're probably never folding out 66-99 here, but whatever. It folds around to the button, an older kind of erratic at times player who laughs and looks like he's about to fold but then says "you don't have no queen!", he says eh let's find out and raises me to $175.

I should point out that table talk although usually is a sign of strength, in this players case if anything it is more weakness than anything else, although not a tell that will influence our decision heavily. I do however strongly believe that he wouldn't check behind top pair with any kicker that he limped in with last to act with 5 players in the hand, so combine that with the rest, Im almost certain he doesn't have a queen here...If he is strong he may have 33 or 55, (that actually would go with the table talk), but my gut tells me that's he's empty more often that he's filled up.... which means it's our pot to steal back...

so what's the agenda for this heist?

1) We can reraise right back here. This should take the pot down right now, although it kind of looks fishy. If we were filled up we'd probably just call and look to c/r the river (or possibly lead out) bc his strength doesn't appear enormous and if we just had trips we probably wouldn't be exploding this pot so big.... so this play might look fishy. Downsides are If he calls we probably aren't good or bad enough to fire the river bullet so we'd just freeze and he may even be sick enough to 4 bet bluff us here

2) We can call and look to lead out on any river (assuming a 3rd queen doesn't drop) a medium sized bet of like $275-$300, representing at least a good queen. This still allows him to bluff raise us, but I think in this spot he won't attempt it as it looks like at least queen. Yea he may hero with 66 or similar but I think this line folds out these hands often enough also. Downsides include he might pair up on the river and get stubborn with his hand and call

3) We just abort mission even though we're fairly certain villain is empty and we can take this pot, since we're OOP, the pot is small and we're inflating a small pot with nothing.

Which line do you like and why?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I like the third line best, followed by the first line, and lastly the second line.

Reasoning being like so: I don't know if I'm comfortable assuming he doesn't have a queen. We have to at least give him SOME credit for having it, even if we think it's rare. It's also an ideal spot for him to check back 33 and 55 on the flop, and that kind of table talk is what I'd expect from someone who has the near nuts - but if you think he's weak, then perhaps trust that instinct.

Still, what's he raising then? Ace-high? If he wanted to bluff, why not bet the flop?

Reraising is the second best alternative, though I don't like it. Trusting your read he'll have air a lot of the time, and we obviously don't beat even air. It's possible that re-raising will be +EV, but that seems like guesswork and vague guesswork at that. Risking a lot to win a little with only a hunch that it might work often enough is not my preferred style.

I think calling and then leading out is the worst line. It carries with it all the dangers of reraising the turn but includes the possibility of him hitting a card on the river (e.g. pairing an ace) and deciding to look you up.
 
B

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I really hate playing back in spots like this because:

A. When someone gives a speech about the strength of your hand and then raises you, I feel like this is a total Hollywood job and he really hopes you have a Q and shoves. I mean, if they have showdown value and suspect you are weak, why wouldn't he just call?

B. If he has a marginal hand, he must have a read that you're weak and I suspect he will make some hero call with a midpair.
 
StormRaven

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I like leading out on the turn to represent that you have a weak Q. Most of the time this should take the pot down right there. However, you have a maniac at the table, and I too normally would take his table talk for having the near nuts but he is a maniac and probably doesn't know how to slow play. At least that has been my experience with maniacs. It seems more likely to me that had he gotten a big piece of that board then he would've bet the flop.

If my read is correct, and he's a maniac, and he checked the flop, he's testing you trying for a resteal. At this point I'm either:

1.) Re-reraising to show strength, let him know we are confident our hand is better than his and let him know he shouldn't try to steal from us.

2) Calling (although I don't like this option much at all). Then betting 3/4 the pot on the river and hoping my reads are right and he folds (provided a scare card doesn't fall).

3)Folding - We have to reraise and fire off another bullet on the river to complete our tale. If he has any part of this pot and his gut is telling him you are trying to steal, he's calling your re-raise and river bet or he's going to come over the top on your bet/re-raise forcing us to fold. By folding, we are also setting ourselves up with this player to play this same game, and get paid for it, when we do hit our hand by playing it the same way. Regardless, we aren't beating him if he calls with his Ax.

BTW - what reads do you think your opps have on you? Have you been showing down much and if so with what type of hands? Have you shown a bluff?
 
Z

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BTW - what reads do you think your opps have on you? Have you been showing down much and if so with what type of hands? Have you shown a bluff?

I have been fairly stabby but villain sees me as a good player whod oesn't get big $ in without big hands. Haven't showdown a bluff this session yet


---

Im also putting a little into the fact that villain appeared to start to fold his hand and then decided against it at the last second and pulled it back.
 
tenbob

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Im also putting a little into the fact that villain appeared to start to fold his hand and then decided against it at the last second and pulled it back.

Anytime I've ever seen a semi-compentant live player do this he is sitting with close to the nuts.

I take line 3 almost always here, unless I am playing with regs that will give me action in the future when my bluff totally fails.
 
Z

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Anytime I've ever seen a semi-compentant live player do this he is sitting with close to the nuts.

I take line 3 almost always here, unless I am playing with regs that will give me action in the future when my bluff totally fails.

It's kind of hard to explain without you being at the table, but my gut feeling was this was not a hollywood play, as the movement was very slight.... it really seemed as if he was about to fold but then convinced himself I was empty and decided to steal instead
 
Z

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Reraising is the second best alternative, though I don't like it. Trusting your read he'll have air a lot of the time, and we obviously don't beat even air. It's possible that re-raising will be +EV, but that seems like guesswork and vague guesswork at that. Risking a lot to win a little with only a hunch that it might work often enough is not my preferred style.

I think calling and then leading out is the worst line. It carries with it all the dangers of reraising the turn but includes the possibility of him hitting a card on the river (e.g. pairing an ace) and deciding to look you up.

I agree with this analysis, but my problem is at the time I was thinking how would I play QT/QJ in this situation? I'd probably call and either medium lead the river or c/c the river. If I somehow showed up with Q5 or Q3 (unlikely obviously bc of the straddle and extra bet i'd have to call pre) I'd probably call and c/r all (most) rivers (probably bet/call broadway rivers).

With 55 or 33 I would 3 bet a lot, so I guess my line with reraising would be reppin 55 or 33 although most people wouldn't expect boats to reraise and think I was FOS. I liked the reraise plan better, but didn't know how good it would sell bc of how I'd call the majority of strong hands in my range here

Still, what's he raising then? Ace-high? If he wanted to bluff, why not bet the flop?

My instinct basically said he wasn't planning to bluff this pot (straddle pot 5 ways not a huge pot to bluff 4 players with) , but after I bet and everyone folded convinced himself I didn't have a queen and thus decided to steal it
 
ukaliks

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I'd fold to his re-raise because im a nit. Nice try for a steal stab but this guy has pos on u and u've got the river left to act. He can put in any bet on the river to try and steal this pot away from u and calling with air (only 8 high aswell) doesnt seem like +EV to me.
It's a tough spot weather ur read will work or not, but to stick some chips in on a hunch to win a small-ish pot doesnt seem like the trouble to me.
Fold it and look to trap this guy in another hand.
 
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