$2000 NL HE Full Ring: Airball Setup
5/10 NL Effective Stacks $1700
3 limps, I complete from the BB with 8
7[image: http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/images/smilies/diamond.gif] Straddler checks.
Flop comes Q[image: http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/images/smilies/diamond.gif]5[image: http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/images/smilies/heart.gif]3[image: http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/images/smilies/club.gif]
We check as do the other 4 players
Turn Q[image: http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/images/smilies/spade.gif]
We're first to act, and yea it's 4 opponents, but it's pretty apparent no one likes this board and we could certainly have some random queen in our hand that we checked, so since we're just ultra stabby lately we lead out for $65 into a $100. Yea we're probably never folding out 66-99 here, but whatever. It folds around to the button, an older kind of erratic at times player who laughs and looks like he's about to fold but then says "you don't have no queen!", he says eh let's find out and raises me to $175.
I should point out that table talk although usually is a sign of strength, in this players case if anything it is more weakness than anything else, although not a tell that will influence our decision heavily. I do however strongly believe that he wouldn't check behind top pair with any kicker that he limped in with last to act with 5 players in the hand, so combine that with the rest, Im almost certain he doesn't have a queen here...If he is strong he may have 33 or 55, (that actually would go with the table talk), but my gut tells
me that's he's empty more often that he's filled up.... which means it's our pot to steal back...
so what's the agenda for this heist?
1) We can reraise right back here. This should take the pot down right now, although it kind of looks fishy. If we were filled up we'd probably just call and look to c/r the river (or possibly lead out) bc his strength doesn't appear enormous and if we just had trips we probably wouldn't be exploding this pot so big.... so this play might look fishy. Downsides are If he calls we probably aren't good or bad enough to fire the river bullet so we'd just freeze and he may even be sick enough to 4 bet bluff us here
2) We can call and look to lead out on any river (assuming a 3rd queen doesn't drop) a medium sized bet of like $275-$300, representing at least a good queen. This still allows him to bluff raise us, but I think in this spot he won't attempt it as it looks like at least queen. Yea he may hero with 66 or similar but I think this line folds out these hands often enough also. Downsides include he might pair up on the river and get stubborn with his hand and call
3) We just abort mission even though we're fairly certain villain is empty and we can take this pot, since we're OOP, the pot is small and we're inflating a small pot with nothing.
Which line do you like and why?