$2000 NLHE 6-max: How strong is that draw?

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Dion

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$2000 NL HE 6-max: How strong is that draw?

Hi guys,

The hand I am about to post is not mine, it belongs to a person who is successfull at NLHE who made about 60k for three months playing mostly $5/$10 and $1/$2 SH 6 max games. He's got by far about 90k hands in both - 60k at 5/10 and 30k at 1/2, he is also successful at 3/6 and 10/20 NLHE SH having about 20k hands there overall.

So far so good, I am going to post one of his biggest winners because I dont understand the logic behind that play (esp. on the flop). I'd like to see what you guys think because at one point that play seems absurd.

Hero plays $5/$10 NLHE SH with a $3180 stack, he joined the table 25 mins ago (assuming he plays with randoms), having played about 40 hands he finds himself at the Hijack position with K
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J
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, UTG folds and he raises to $30, 3 folds and BB ($1660) calls another $20 with 7
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8
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; the flop comes 5
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9
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Q
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, BB checks and hero bets $55 into a $65 pot. Now! BB reraises to $150 and hero calls. Turn - 6
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, villain bets $328 into a $365 pot and hero reraises all-in for another 3k, villain calls 1,5k - all-in. River - 10
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Hero wins the pot $3320.

So what do you think of both peoples' play?
 
thepokerkid123

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Just to clean this up a bit:

$5/$10NL
Hero (hijack) $3,180
Villain (BB) $1,660
(more players with stacks not mentioned)

Dealt to hero: K
club.png
J
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Pre-flop: UTG folds, Hero raises to $30, 3 folds, BB calls (with 7
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8
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).

Flop: 5
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9
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Q
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Pot is $65 (-rake)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, BB raises to $150, Hero calls.

Turn: 6
club.png

Pot is $365 (-rake)
BB bets $328, hero shoves $1,480 (making it $1,152 more to call), BB calls.



Ok, now this one is so ridiculously out of my league that nothing I say here should mean much, but the way I read this is:
Pre-flop: Hero makes a standard raise, it's probably towards the bottom of his range but it's still completely fine. Villain calls with a SCer which immediately means either:
1) He's a fish, which will drastically effect the way both of them play the rest of the hand.
2) He's planning to do some freakishly aggressive stuff post-flop that will make most people cringe, almost always this would mean these guys have history.

Flop: Villain checks which doesn't alter his range, Hero cbets the perfect flop for cbetting, villain check-raises (he's now not looking as likely to be a fish) because hero will have cbet his entire range which means it's mostly air. The Q is also a good high card to come off for giving both guys air. Villain's c/r being standard can be called light by Hero. He does have two overcards against most of villain's range and a gutshot and a backdoor flushdraw so it's a good spot to get creative.

Turn: Villain just made his hand and wants this pot to get big, he is planning to shove on his next action but his range is planning to shove or fold on the next action. Hero having improved his draw now has a lot of equity against one pair hands, add in his fold equity (considering he has almost no showdown value he does need to get rid of villain's air) and the shove is reasonable. Villain calls with the nuts and cries on the river.

All of that may be tainted by my opinion of what level guys at those stakes are thinking on. It may also be outright wrong, take it for whatever it's worth.
 
D

Dion

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Thanks a lot! Your opinion gave me a perspective I haven't thought of. You’re right, this is a different league... I still think this hand is within your skills, unless you play way higher (The lad I'm talking about here has been playing for just a year). The way you interpret the flop and turn situations tells me I am still in first grade and I got a lot to learn. Would you tell me a bit more about how to "read" the flop (topic/thread maybe) or just in your experience? Also you profiled the villain immediately - how can I improve on that, as well?
 
c9h13no3

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Reading flops just comes with experience (obviously KJT flops are wetter than 27Q ones, now just extend that to all types of flops), and pokerkid thought villain was less likely to be a fish because his raise sizes were pretty decent, and usually fish are more passive.
 
thepokerkid123

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Thanks a lot! Your opinion gave me a perspective I haven't thought of. You’re right, this is a different league... I still think this hand is within your skills, unless you play way higher (The lad I'm talking about here has been playing for just a year). The way you interpret the flop and turn situations tells me I am still in first grade and I got a lot to learn. Would you tell me a bit more about how to "read" the flop (topic/thread maybe) or just in your experience? Also you profiled the villain immediately - how can I improve on that, as well?

FWIW, I'm absolutely certain 2000nl regs (hell, even good 100nl regs) are thinking more in-depth than my post was. The learning curve in this game is really steep.

Best any of us can do is admit we're all fish and keep learning.
 
dj11

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I like the kids take on it.

Just remember, that there are many many folks who like the gamble part of poker. For some (hate to think many) of them it pays off. While there is some sense in both players actions on that hand, the shove with only a draw is what I call a gamble.

Most of us want to think we are a bit more sane about the game, which might be the most insane thing we can think about our play.

Remember, there are the rules, then there are the cards, then there are the odds, and assorted theories, and THEN there is the poker game!
 
Z

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Everything about this hand seems pretty standard. KJs is an easy open from the hijack and stacks are 165+ BBs deep, probably deep enough to flat SCs out of the blind getting 2:1 initially if you have some trickiness postflop.

On the flop 87 checks, KJ is an easy CBet and then 87 decides to c/r his gutshot and backdoor FD. This will pick up the pot a decent amount of the time and we do have nut outs (yea only 4) if we are called. PFRer figures BB to be playing back at him some % of the time, and is likely to have overs, a nut gutshot and a backdoor FD as well. Still with 150 (effective) BBs behind and position, PFR can flat this raise hoping to improve or outplay his opponent on the turn

Turn comes a 6c which nuts the BB and drastically improves the PFRs hand. We obviously continue to bet as the BB with the nuts here. PFR sees the BB has 1200ish behind and figures he (BB) is only semi strong some % of the time, and in addition we have flush and straight outs. Since we only have K high at the moment we value our fold equity and shove figuring to pick up the pot a significant amount of the time and likely having 12 outs if called.
 
D

Dion

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Its amazing how many replys you get on these forums...:) , try to post on deucescracked, you may get an answer in a year or so...
 
Elie_Yammine

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I like the kids take on it.

Just remember, that there are many many folks who like the gamble part of poker. For some (hate to think many) of them it pays off. While there is some sense in both players actions on that hand, the shove with only a draw is what I call a gamble.

Most of us want to think we are a bit more sane about the game, which might be the most insane thing we can think about our play.

Remember, there are the rules, then there are the cards, then there are the odds, and assorted theories, and THEN there is the poker game!

+1!!!
Heck!Even pros love to gamble sometimes!
Take a look at sammy farha, he's a simply a gambler! (Well okay he counts the cards that came out hoping to identify a 2nd probability and he is a pro but well...)
 
slycbnew

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The turn shove is almost certainly not based only on making the draw, if Hero's any good - you're right, it's insane for him to be putting that much money in the pot on a draw, he's a serious dog w one card to come to any conceivable hand Villain could be playing here, and Hero should know that.

Shoving makes much more sense if Hero thinks Villain can fold a weak made hand. Qx/9x made hands shouldn't be able to call here unless Villain thinks Hero is capable of semibluffing in this spot (which, of course, Hero is, but...).

Assuming Hero's a reasonably good player, he's really not "gambling" in this spot, he's estimating the frequency w which he can get Villain to fold plus the frequency he'll make his draw.
 
D

Dion

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The turn shove is almost certainly not based only on making the draw, if Hero's any good - you're right, it's insane for him to be putting that much money in the pot on a draw, he's a serious dog w one card to come to any conceivable hand Villain could be playing here, and Hero should know that.

Shoving makes much more sense if Hero thinks Villain can fold a weak made hand. Qx/9x made hands shouldn't be able to call here unless Villain thinks Hero is capable of semibluffing in this spot (which, of course, Hero is, but...).

Assuming Hero's a reasonably good player, he's really not "gambling" in this spot, he's estimating the frequency w which he can get Villain to fold plus the frequency he'll make his draw.


Although hero had played only 40ish hands on that table I believe what you’re saying is true to a great extent. He can't be such a consistent winner (Heck, 60k for 3 months!!!) without a solid approach behind him. That leads us to the next skill which is, of course, paying attention and profiling. So to be successful at these levels you have to be able to read the flop, know the odds/outs, profiling the opponents (ASAP) and... gamble a little bit; which might take only a lifetime to master J

 
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Weregoat

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Everything looks pretty standard, the only way the villain could have lost the minimum here would be a gross overbet on the turn (which is the wrong answer), or hero 3-bets the flop (which is also the wrong answer). However at these stakes I'm not sure a turn raise is appropriate from the villain.

His showdown value is K high, Sly made an excellent post about the semi-bluff, which is a move I'm quite fond of.

Overall it's made monster against drawing monster. The kind of hands where a lot of money change hand.
 
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