$200 NLHE Full Ring: What's the play with 55 UTG vs. Straddle/super straddle

K

Kashtree

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 17, 2008
Total posts
39
Chips
0
It's a full game, play has been fairly loose so far and the guy to my immediate right is super loose. I'm the second shortest stack at 140$. Button straddles $7
Small blind super straddles $14
Big blind: Calls $14 blind
UTG: Blind raises $65
Cards are dealt I'm first to act and look at pocket 5's.
I shove.
Is this too loose?
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 29, 2012
Total posts
4,966
Awards
1
Chips
1
It's a full game, play has been fairly loose so far and the guy to my immediate right is super loose. I'm the second shortest stack at 140$. Button straddles $7
Small blind super straddles $14
Big blind: Calls $14 blind
UTG: Blind raises $65
Cards are dealt I'm first to act and look at pocket 5's.
I shove.
Is this too loose?



Yeah dude. Just fold. I wouldn't even call the $14 cause if someone raises it prices us out. Sounds like a wild game, that's why I wouldn't try to limp 14, just fold pre and wait for a better hand to commit chips with.

As it is, we are voluntarily flipping a coin at best for stacks, and we could be crushed as well, even loose players wake up with bigger pairs than 5-5 sometimes. Just because he is loose doesn't mean he is gonna fold anything better than you (like a bigger pair), and to be honest I don't think you have any fold equity whatsoever, so you are just shipping it in there praying you hold or suckout.

Not to mention you never said your position, but I assume you are UTG1, and there are many players behind you who haven't acted yet. So, even if you could limp for 14, I wouldn't even do that, that's why I said that.

You should be playing no less than 200 or 100 BB ideally.

5-5 is a hand that we can setmine with, under ideal circumstances. This scenario is not ideal circumstances. Fold. Next hand.
 
R

RakeMyLife

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 1, 2013
Total posts
208
Chips
0
I feel it can be tempting to loosen up and get crazy when the table does so, but always stick with solid TAG poker when in doubt.

Fold pre.
 
K

Kashtree

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 17, 2008
Total posts
39
Chips
0
Yeah dude. Just fold. I wouldn't even call the $14 cause if someone raises it prices us out. Sounds like a wild game, that's why I wouldn't try to limp 14, just fold pre and wait for a better hand to commit chips with.

As it is, we are voluntarily flipping a coin at best for stacks, and we could be crushed as well, even loose players wake up with bigger pairs than 5-5 sometimes. Just because he is loose doesn't mean he is gonna fold anything better than you (like a bigger pair), and to be honest I don't think you have any fold equity whatsoever, so you are just shipping it in there praying you hold or suckout.

Not to mention you never said your position, but I assume you are UTG1, and there are many players behind you who haven't acted yet. So, even if you could limp for 14, I wouldn't even do that, that's why I said that.

You should be playing no less than 200 or 100 BB ideally.

5-5 is a hand that we can setmine with, under ideal circumstances. This scenario is not ideal circumstances. Fold. Next hand.


Yes, I was UTG+1. All the action before me had taken place prior to the hole cards being dealt. So wouldn't we consider this to be dead money? I had the feeling if I shove, given my table image, it would fold around to UTG, the player I wanted heads up. I was hoping he would call, and he did. He showed 87o

I guess my question would be is this line of thought completely absurd?

I agree to the 100bb statement you make. The game was playing larger than I had anticipated. In hindsight I can see that it was not an ideal spot to make that play. I should probably only be making a move like that when I'm like 250bb or more deep.
 
Last edited:
Jooseme

Jooseme

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 1, 2018
Total posts
196
Chips
0
#1 you probably shouldn't be playing that game with that size stack
#2 I would be snap folding in that spot 100% of the time

You're flipping at BEST. 9/10 you are wayyyyyy behind. Is he every making that raise with 22,33,44? naahhhhh
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 29, 2012
Total posts
4,966
Awards
1
Chips
1
Yes, I was UTG+1. All the action before me had taken place prior to the hole cards being dealt. So wouldn't we consider this to be dead money? I had the feeling if I shove, given my table image, it would fold around to UTG, the player I wanted heads up. I was hoping he would call, and he did. He showed 87o

I guess my question would be is this line of thought completely absurd?

I agree to the 100bb statement you make. The game was playing larger than I had anticipated. In hindsight I can see that it was not an ideal spot to make that play. I should probably only be making a move like that when I'm like 250bb or more deep.



Line of thinking is somewhat absurd....

You are voluntarily choosing to flip a coin (at best) for $140. There are many more spots that will come along where you can get it in as a favorite, like 70%+.

You play roulette and put it all on red. Just about the same thing as this dude.
 
K

Kashtree

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 17, 2008
Total posts
39
Chips
0
So no value in 55 vs. 2 random cards? Interesting. Well we are here to learn. :five: thank you all for your input.
 
Last edited:
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Minigame assumed:
a) UTG raising range 20% {66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo} -> We have 46%
b) Remaining 7 players call 5% range {TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+} -> Probablity of a call is 7*5.28=36.96 -> ~1/3

EVvsutg = 0.46*(140+21) – 0.54*140 = -1.54
EQ against utg+remaining7 = 28%
EVvsutgandremaining = 0.28*(140*2+21) – 0.72*140 = -16.52

TotalEV = 2/3*-1.54 + 1/3*-16.52 = -6bb

Com1: I have no idea of live ranges or even 9 max anymore.
Com2: Even if I calculated very wrong the play can’t be very profitable, even if UTG has 50% range our equity only rises to 51% from 46%
Com3: It seems 88 sees large jump in EQ against wide ranges, thus maybe this play would be profitable starting from 88. Given position it sounds still unwise. 99?
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2008
Total posts
7,150
Awards
5
Chips
6
UTG has blind raised, so I don't know why you are giving him a 20% or 50% range, braveslice, unless you are assuming that to be his call off range (in which case we actually do still get some value from the dead money).

But braveslice's comment about us being UTG and how people call off behind us is REALLY important, and often overlooked. You're basically playing a tournament hand here if you wanna think about it that way, and 5% calling ranges behind us might even be a hair too tight depending on table lineup.

UTG+1 you just so many unknown hands behind, and some of them will be calls, which often have us in very bad shape. Idk if this is a -6bb play but it's probably not +EV.

I also suspect that based on you sitting with just $140 in this game, that you might not be particularly over-rolled for this type of hyper high variance play, which DOES matter. Our plays aren't 100% made in a vacuum. We need to consider whether we could afford to make this play in the long run without going broke too often. Like even if this play is +EV it's probably like +1bb with a HUGE standard deviation. What if it's like 0.5bb? 0.2bb? I hope you can see where I'm going here. At some point we need to pass on +EV spots due to bankroll considerations.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2008
Total posts
7,150
Awards
5
Chips
6
I thought about this some more after rereading braveslice's post, which is a good start on the math but makes a couple errors that skew this a bit. What follows is a LOT of probability and EV math, so if you're not interested in that, here's a spoiler:

It's definitely a +EV jam, and not even really close at all given everyone is blind so far. I thought about it too much before with respect to people behind us, and not enough about how the dead money is > half our stack.

A good way to reimagine this spot is that because there's 65 + 14 + 14 + 7 = 100 in the pot already, we can pretend it's like a tournament spot where the blinds/antes are like 20/40/5a which would make an equivalent pot size. So you can pretend that we have like 3.5bb with pocket 5's UTG and this becomes way more crystallized in terms of being a profitable jam.



The rest will be exactly as I wrote it out, including a bit of my revelations along the way, since tbh I'm a bit embarrassed that I didn't figure this out quicker, but the math really helps shed a light.

For fun I did my own EV equation assuming UTG always calls 100%, which is best case scenario, since I assume if someone calls in front of him, he’s not just getting it in with 32o, but who knows. I gave everyone behind us a calling range of 99+/AQ+.

If we get no calls before UTG, we have 60.4% equity.
EV(no one calls before UTG) = 0.604(175) + 0.396(-140) = 50.26

If we get 1 call prior to UTG, we have 26.9% equity.
EV(1 call prior to UTG) = 0.269(315) + 0.731(-140) = -17.605

If we get 2 calls prior to UTG, we have 20.4% equity.
EV(2 calls prior to UTG) = 0.204(455) + 0.796(-140) = -18.62

The chances of getting 3 calls prior to UTG is so low that I chose to ignore it.

The odds of no one of the 7 other players calling behind us before UTG is 0.95^7 = 0.6983.

The odds of one caller before UTG is (7 choose 1)*(0.95^6)*(0.05) = 0.2573

The odds of two callers before UTG is (7 choose 2)*(0.95^5)*(0.05^2) = 0.0406

Total = 0.6983 + 0.2573 + 0.0406 = 0.9962
So we can see we’re only ignoring like 0.38% of all outcomes, so it won’t impact the EV much.

EV(jam) = (0.6983)(50.26) + (0.2573)(-17.605) + (0.0406)(-18.62)
EV(jam) = 35.10 - 4.53 - 0.76 = 29.81

In my head, this was a best case scenario. People might call wider behind us. UTG likely doesn’t call 100% if it doesn’t fold to him, which means we simultaneously have a bit less equity when that happens, AND we win less money those times even when we do suck out ($75 less). If we tweak the numbers just a little so that people call with 88+/AQ+, now instead of it folding to UTG 70% of the time, it’s 66.80% of the time. It’s getting 1 caller to him 27.74% of the time. 2 callers to him 4.94% of the time. The equities are respectively 60.4%, 26.1%, and 20.0% when UTG is in the pot. And when we get 1 vs 2 callers in the pot but UTG doesn’t call, we have respectively 34.2% and 23.3% equity.

EV(1 call prior to UTG, and UTG folds) = 0.342(240) + 0.658(-140) = -10.04
EV(2 calls prior to UTG, and UTG folds) = 0.233(380) + 0.767(-140) = -18.84

EV(jam) = (0.6680)(50.26) + (0.2774)(0.5)(-17.605 - 10.04) + (0.0494)(0.5)(-18.62 - 18.84)
EV(jam) = 33.57 - 3.83 - 0.93 = 28.81

So I just proved myself wrong I think. Just by nature of there being so much money out there, and us being so short stacked, we can profitably jam 55.

Since I went to all this trouble, I took one last shot at this with what I believe is pretty close to a worst case scenario: Everyone calls with specifically a range that has us crushed - JUST 66+. UTG still calls 100% all the time though, to simplify the math.

Equities for the same scenarios are 60.4%, 17.2%, and 14.7%. EV of no calls prior to UTG is the same as before. We will get no calls prior to UTG 74.60% of the time. 1 call 27.22% of the time. 2 calls 4.26% of the time.

EV(1 call prior to UTG, and UTG folds) = 0.172(315) + 0.828(-140) = -61.74
EV(2 calls prior to UTG, and UTG folds) = 0.147(455) +0.853(-140) = -52.54

EV(jam) = (0.746)(50.26) + (0.2722)(-61.74) + (0.0426)(-52.54)
EV(jam) = 37.49 - 16.81 - 2.24 = 18.44

So what it really comes down to is how much equity 55 has against ALL unpaired hands, and how infrequently people will wake up with big hands behind us. All of this really is a lesson in tournament short stacking though, because in retrospect if I’d just thought of this as being a blinds/antes spot where we have an M of like 2, it becomes a very obvious shove with any pair UTG, for example. So nice hand haha.
 
Last edited:
S

Simplex

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 15, 2015
Total posts
131
Chips
0
Way to loose, even HU. Multi-way, your equity drops considerably.

Easy fold.
 
Top