$200 NLHE Full Ring: two pairs faces donk bet on scary river

$200 NL HE Full Ring: two pairs faces donk bet on scary river

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/9/1.6

River card is horrible, but price is not too bad. Am I too weak if I fold this?

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $37 (18.5 bb)
MP1: $35.15 (17.6 bb)
MP2: $231.85 (115.9 bb)
MP3: $39.45 (19.7 bb)
CO: $313.50 (156.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $227.90 (114 bb)
SB: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 9 T
3 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $8, BB folds, CO calls $7

Flop: ($29) J 9 T (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20, CO folds

Turn: ($69) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $42, SB calls $42

River: ($153) Q (2 players)
SB bets $88, Hero ???

Every hand he called you with has just got there on the river pretty much. Love the fold imo!

Jagsti said:

Every hand he called you with has just got there on the river pretty much. Love the fold imo!

Click to expand...

+1

This is pretty much a snap fold unless villain is zachvac, heard that guy makes some crazy bluffs.

But in all seriousness this is never air. The board gets scary, this is almost always straight or flush hoping you make a hero call with a set. He knows you're likely to check back, so only value line that makes sense on this river is to just donk and hope you call. I would fold QQ to this bet. Only question is could I find a call with a naked king. Pretty sure I call AK/flushes but he's got a straight or flush like 100% here.

drop it like it's hot! you're probably good here less than 2% of the time. everything got there so he'd pretty much have to be turning AJ into a bluff (or AQ if he'd ever c/c turn with it). that's really unlikely on its own, but when you add in how valuey the bet looks, i'd be surprised if you ever have him beat. i'd fold the bottom end of the straight

Yea, I think this is the easiest fold ever invented.

I don't think there's one single hand you can come up with you beat that he'd take this line with.