This is a discussion on $200 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK facing check-raise all in on turn from TAG on dry board within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Live cash game
HERO is dealt :as4: :qh4: on the BTN w/ 195bb stack
VILLAIN is in BB w/ ~150bb stack
VILLAIN is tight and aggressive.
VILLAIN defends his blinds pretty wide. He’s a regular at the casino and i know he’s a good thinking player. I think he 3bets his AA and KK pre. The check-call on the flop doesn't change much of his range i think accept for taking out some of the trash hands with which he defended wide. With the check-raise on the turn I'm giving him a range of 77, 22, QQ, JJ, T9 of hearts, KQ, AJ.
Were ahead of his 17 combos of KQ and AJ by a lot. Were at roughly 70% against his 1 combo of T9 of hearts. And were crushed by his 10 combos of sets. With about 1.2:1 pot odds, i think this is a +EV call.
Do you think the range i assigned to villain is accurate? Im bad at assigning ranges.
If we assume the range i assigned is perfect, did i make the right decision?
Should we have checked back the flop?
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I really dont know, what kind of range to assign, because this absurd overbet makes little sense. This is not something, a good schooled player would ever do, so right off the bat, I would question my idea, that this guy is a "TAG", when I see something like this.
However my best guess is, he is doing this for value, and that he panicked about the draws developing on the turn. Bad players are sometimes so scared to get drawn out on, that they would rather sacrifice value by playing their hand way to fast.
More importantly I would fall back to basics, and a single pair is not a hand, I am willing to play for 150BB with in a single raised pot. I would need at least QJ to call him down part of the difference being, that QJ block some of his sets and split with another QJ. AQ and even KK-AA as well would be a fold to me, and its not even really close to be honest. So I dont think, this was a good call.