$200 NLHE Full Ring: Is top pair on river good enough to call?

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Gildog89

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Live 1/2 at a pretty snug table. A lot of pre-flop limping going on. I have taken down about 1 pot per orbit in position by raising the limpers, getting a couple of callers, and c-betting good flops for my range over the last 4 orbits. Villain is visibly eyeing me with suspicion, though he hasn't been involved with me yet. He has been at the table for about an hour, and seems solid. Hasn't had to show down, his stack is $250, I have him well covered.


I am in the button with QdTd. Villain is UTG+1.


There are 3 limpers, I raise to $12. SB folds, BB calls, Villain calls. 3 players, Pot is $40.


Flop is 9d 8c 7h


Checks to me, I c-bet $25. BB folds, villain calls. Pot is $90.


Turn is 9d 8c 7h 5d. I pick up flush draw with my open ender.


I bet $65, villain calls. Pot is $220


River is 9d 8c 7h 5d Qh


Villain goes all in for $148. Is top pair weak kicker good enough to make the call here? I can't see him holding a 6 unless he has 2 of them. I think I would have heard from a set or 2 pair earlier on that wet board. Can I put him on TJ or a better Q here?
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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Your villain so reminds me of me (eyeing you, being suspicious). If all is as said, I would say your villain is trapping you big time, and doesn't want to just check on the river, risking a check back and losing value. I would never put your villain on any Q, because there aren't many of those that check-call 2 streets and limp pre-flop. So in my opinion, it is either a made straight (most likely JT) or a bluff. The only other possible hand would be set or pocket 66, but as you said, it is unlikely that villain is not raising on earlier streets with those. Unless you have some strong read, I would fold, you are only beating bluffs, and I don't see anyone bluffing so recklessly on the river, since you didn't show any weakness on the flop/turn.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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Honestly at a nitty 1/2 table, I dont think this player ever has anything but J10. The way you described the table makes him calling your c-bet a pretty large tell. Heres another good way to look at it : 1: He is never bluffing, nitty 1/2 players RARELY do
2: You beat NO value hands
 
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Gildog89

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I did fold. Then villain got quite active, and showed several strong hands that he didn't have to show. The hand stood out a bit more to me after, since he didn't open his hand on that one.
 
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Fastone2

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Should have never played the hand.
 
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MrSamsa

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I agree with the other posters. If he was suspicious he would just call you down. Jamming looks like he might have spiked a Q to go with his pp, but like others said JT seems more likely especially for the environment. This along with the fact that you block his 10x drawing hands. I think you made the right decision by folding
 
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Gildog89

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Should have never played the hand.
OK, so why not play this hand at a super tight table where I am having some success stealing from limp callers? I feel like I should have checked back on the turn and maybe even the flop on the wet board, but shouldn't I be exploiting the tight passive limp callers at this table? Just looking for perspective on this.
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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Should have never played the hand.

actually he should almost always play this hand in position. Generally suited connector have great playability, being in position is even better as you can put pressure on opponents on so many different boards.
This hand in particular has 35% equity pre flop even against AA, while if you hit an open ender and a straight draw (you still don't have a made hand) on the flop you have 55-60% equity against AA. Definitely a hand you should play in position in CASH games.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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I did fold. Then villain got quite active, and showed several strong hands that he didn't have to show. The hand stood out a bit more to me after, since he didn't open his hand on that one.

I think you should be checking back the flop actually, it smashes the villain's range. See what develops from there, you could delay c-bet the turn when you pick up equity and maybe bet/fold the river depending on what action unfolds.
 
1dkp0k3r

1dkp0k3r

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I think you should be checking back the flop actually, it smashes the villain's range. See what develops from there, you could delay c-bet the turn when you pick up equity and maybe bet/fold the river depending on what action unfolds.



I think a check back on the turn would be better. The way that you describe the table dynamics, getting called on this super wet board should be cause for concern. You would hate to have to bet fold the turn to an all in raise, as you turn extra equity. If your opponent has :jh4: :10h4: you have 25% equity. If he has :6h4: :6s4: you have 30%.
 
Jooseme

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I think it is profitable in the long run. It would depend on how I'm feeling that night.
 
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Gildog89

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Yeah, I should have checked back on one of the streets for sure. Villain would have had to size the bet and I might have been able to get to a cheap showdown against a hand like 9Ts which is also in his range here.
 
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