$200 NLHE Full Ring: Set multi way, flush draw and possible straight - river call?

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uavissar

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: Set multi way, flush draw and possible straight - river call?

Live game.We are all very deep over 200BB.


UTG- loose player. Had a call of all in earlier on the turn with K3s for about 30bb.
UTG+1 - seems like a reg. Plays online while playing cash, hoody, earphones...the works.
I'm at MP.


Rest of the table is not relevant.


UTG opens + $5. Standard open.
UTG+1 calls.


I have :6c4::6s4: and decide to call. Standard I believe.


Rest of the table folds.


Flop (pot is $18)-
:6d4::4d4::3d4:


UTG continues $8
UTG+1 calls.
I call (mistake?). My reasoning is I don't want to inflate the pot atm against a relatively loose player (UTG)- pot control.


Turn (post is $42)
:kd4:
UTG checks.
UTG+1 checks.
I check. Obviously I didn't want to see a diamond.


River (pot is $42):2s4:
UTG checks.
UTG+1 bets $21


Hero?
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

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Fold. Its a bitch to fold trips, but all you really know is a loose guy opened UTG and was called by another guy who likely knows what they are doing.

UTG's C-bet looks standard for a loose guy, but why does a competent UTG+1 JUST call a low 3-flush flop? Looks like a draw to me. Not sure Hero's flop call was bad. It would depend on the stacks.

When the K comes making a 4-flush board why would it be checked to you? They are either giving up or are slow playing. What are the odds either guy has a diamond? There are 9 diamonds left with 42 cards out. 9/42 + 9/41 +9/39 + 9/38. There is an almost 90% chance one of the Villains has a flush AND worse UTG+1 looks to have bigger cards in general.

It is very unlikely the trips are good making calling bad. IF Hero turns his hand into a bluff, what hands can he hope to fold? All non flushes and the low diamonds; 2, 5, 7, 8, 9? A, Q, J, T call, BUT how likely is it UTG+1 has low cards or is bluffing. After your $21 call the pot is $84 and Hero would need to raise at least 1/2 pot for a believable bluff making your bet $63 to win $63.

There will be better opportunities. Fold.
 
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steelhamster

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Instafold, followed by a pat on the back for making an emotionally hard fold, and doing it well - I have a very simple math reason:

The chance of any card not being a diamond is 75%. There are four cards in your two opponent's hands. Therefore, the probability of none of those cards being a diamond is 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.3164. That means 31.64% of the time you're NOT facing a flush draw. Many live game opponents love their suited aces. A5d would be the second nuts here, and it is a very reasonable calling hand if you believe that there will be several callers behind you. A2s is also a possible holding for one of your opponents. KQs is a pretty reasonable calling hand for UTG+2, a looser, deep stacked player might also open with it from early position. I think you need to include QJs, and JTs as reasonable potential holdings for your opponent at UTG+2. Would you open UTG with QJs? hmm - tough, but you have described dude as very active, so possible.

At a more "advanced" table, with a deep stack low-suited connectors from early position can also make a great calling hand, if you think there will be a string of callers behind you now and then, because if you can get there, you will blow your table mates minds and they will fear you on basically every flop. But, that's not a play I recommend unless you're playing against a lot of good players who do good hand-ranging and you're able to hit the flop cheaply. That's a meta game approach that probably isn't necessary at 1/2. But you can't discount that from the range of UTG+2 - he would be doing this to meta-game the other grinder at the table that you haven't mentioned. :)

Given the board texture, I think the probability is that you're facing two flush draws, a made middling flush and a draw to a K or A flush, or possibly a straight draw and a flush draw, which means you need your full house to prevail, which requires the board to pair. You've got 7 outs (one 6, three 4s, three 3s) which gives you about a 15% of hitting it on the turn, and if you miss the turn about a 15% chance of hitting it on the river. You're facing a $34 pot that will cost you $8 to see that's 4.25:1, or about 25%. Calling here is negative EV.

If you're calling, you're calling because you believe one of your opponents is going to bet hard if you get there. The straight draw isn't going to bet hard into a flush - he might call if there are only three diamonds there, but I don't see the straight calling 4 diamonds. A typical value bet for someone holding a decent flush is going to be around 25-50% of pot. Given the calls, if someone has flopped a middling flush, or JT or QJ, they're probably going to be less excited about going for value at the river because of the two opponents who call the flush board. So, assuming you make your full house, if that diamond doesn't come on the turn or the river, the optimal situation for you is that the middling flush value bets into a $42 pot. On the other hand, if the diamond does come, the best situation would be UTG betting his king-high flush into UTG+1's ace-high flush, who reraises the paired board that you re-raise on... Your friend in the hoody isn't calling your reraise on a paired board and UTG one isn't calling your reraise - he will assume one of you have the A.

In my mind this kind of mid-strength hands is what makes you either a profitable player or a losing player - this is where the game of poker is - being able to assess if the bluff-catch risk is worth the reward of the call.

If the flop was something like 6d, 4d, 3c, I think it's a re-raise to say ~$24
 
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uavissar

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I did indeed insta fold
Was very surprised when UTG called, showing AK (no d) and UTG+1 shows 33....hence I thought maybe I missed something so decided to post it.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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Live game.We are all very deep over 200BB.


UTG- loose player. Had a call of all in earlier on the turn with K3s for about 30bb.
UTG+1 - seems like a reg. Plays online while playing cash, hoody, earphones...the works.
I'm at MP.


Rest of the table is not relevant.


UTG opens + $5. Standard open.
UTG+1 calls.


I have :6c4::6s4: and decide to call. Standard I believe.


Rest of the table folds.


Flop (pot is $18)-
:6d4::4d4::3d4:


UTG continues $8
UTG+1 calls.
I call (mistake?). My reasoning is I don't want to inflate the pot atm against a relatively loose player (UTG)- pot control.


Turn (post is $42)
:kd4:
UTG checks.
UTG+1 checks.
I check. Obviously I didn't want to see a diamond.


River (pot is $42):2s4:
UTG checks.
UTG+1 bets $21


Hero?

I think this would be a really good hand to squeeze with to try to get it heads up against what you perceive to be a very wide range UTG.


As played, I would have bet something like 40 on the flop. Very draw heavy board, lots of hands will call you with worse here. I would have the intention of firing a 2nd barrel on the turn and folding if you got raised at that point.


I would have a REALLY hard time folding here, your hand is super under repped and it just got checked to UTG+1 twice in a row, he can be repping any two cards here.
 
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