$200 NLHE Full Ring: Set-Mining vs Two Players

Weregoat

Weregoat

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: Set-Mining vs Two Players

All stacks are at 100 BBs.

Villain 1 is UTG+1 (14/11/X, only a couple hundred hands history, don't have fold to 3/4 bet or other relative stats),
Hero is MP,
Villain 2 is CO (15/12/X, couple hundred hands, don't have other relative stats)

Villain 1 raises to $7,
Hero looks at JJ and 3-bets to $17,
Villain 2 4-bets to $36.
Villain 1 calls.
Hero - ?

My thoughts -
Calling to close the action gives us some tasty pot odds (19:92), what kind of flops can we continue? Obviously all players are in for almost one fifth their stack, and on a lot of flops we're all likely to stack off post-flop. I think both players have an overpair.

Logic dictates fold, but folder's remorse would probably tilt me laying down a pot giving me almost 5:1 with a pocket pair with another possible ~$370 likely to be going into the pot after the flop.

I know set-mining is dictated to be valuable when the preflop action is 1/8th of effective stacks or less in a heads-up pot, does that value hold the same for 3-way pots?

Can I fold a set that's likely to not be best?
Am I going to flop J-high and get paid?

Curious on some of the other players takes are on the hand. I've run it by a couple IRL poker buddies to get responses more in line with how I played the hand, but want some contradicting opinions as well...

Thanks in advance, WG.
 
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Zybomb

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For starters I'd 3 bet larger pre, (particularly with JJ, since a decent amount of the time we're gunna end up with 2nd pair and thus have decisions post and I think the little over double sized raise just encourages too many calls) -- I'd just revert to standard and pot raise it like I would with all hands I planned to 3 bet with.

Onto the actual question, to clean up the numbers, Villain 1 has opened and then cold called a 4 bet :confused:. That line is just strange to begin with, but strictly from a math perspective there's now $92 in the middle and it costs us $19 more to see a flop roughly 4.9:1 on our $. If we call there will be $111 in the middle with effective stacks of $164.

I think we can safely say at least one person has us beat (even if we give the 4 bettor AK, we likely cant assign the same holding to the original opener since AK is very unlikely to cold call and either 5 bets or folds) so assuming we are playing JJ as if it is 22 (i.e strictly setmining) I think it's a pretty easy call.

No one folds large overpairs in 4 bet pots. No one. Long run implied odds of us calling easily make up for the little pot odds we have to make up for. Seven losses of $19 the times we don't flop a Jack equal up to $133. That means the time we do hit we only have to make up $41 (from the original $92 pot before our call pre) to break even on the call. This is not even a question that we will do this and more.

I will admit The only thing NOT considered is the times we get stacked set over set, which leads into the next question of can we fold an inferior set. I don't think we can simply because I can't think of boards that we can limit villains range to only sets. Like KJx villain will play AK, AA and KK identical. On QJx people will play AA and QQ identical (and likely KK as well). On AJx boards AK will pound hard... i will say on AJx boards if the original raiser is the one shoveling in $ as opposed to the 4 bettor I'd be slightly concerned on slowplayed Aces, simply bc like I said earlier I don't think AK ever flats here, so it's strange for much else to shovel money in post flop.
 
Weregoat

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Zybomb said:
For starters I'd 3 bet larger pre, (particularly with JJ, since a decent amount of the time we're gunna end up with 2nd pair and thus have decisions post and I think the little over double sized raise just encourages too many calls) -- I'd just revert to standard and pot raise it like I would with all hands I planned to 3 bet with.

Onto the actual question, to clean up the numbers, Villain 1 has opened and then cold called a 4 bet :confused:. That line is just strange to begin with, but strictly from a math perspective there's now $92 in the middle and it costs us $19 more to see a flop roughly 4.9:1 on our $. If we call there will be $111 in the middle with effective stacks of $164.

I think we can safely say at least one person has us beat (even if we give the 4 bettor AK, we likely cant assign the same holding to the original opener since AK is very unlikely to cold call and either 5 bets or folds) so assuming we are playing JJ as if it is 22 (i.e strictly setmining) I think it's a pretty easy call.

No one folds large overpairs in 4 bet pots. No one. Long run implied odds of us calling easily make up for the little pot odds we have to make up for. Seven losses of $19 the times we don't flop a Jack equal up to $133. That means the time we do hit we only have to make up $41 (from the original $92 pot before our call pre) to break even on the call. This is not even a question that we will do this and more.

I will admit The only thing NOT considered is the times we get stacked set over set, which leads into the next question of can we fold an inferior set. I don't think we can simply because I can't think of boards that we can limit villains range to only sets. Like KJx villain will play AK, AA and KK identical. On QJx people will play AA and QQ identical (and likely KK as well). On AJx boards AK will pound hard... i will say on AJx boards if the original raiser is the one shoveling in $ as opposed to the 4 bettor I'd be slightly concerned on slowplayed Aces, simply bc like I said earlier I don't think AK ever flats here, so it's strange for much else to shovel money in post flop.
Click to expand...

So you're saying you'd raise bigger pre, call the 4-bet, and stack off with any board with AJx, KJx, and QJx, provided there are possible made straights or flushes (not that we can put an opponent on T9s or anything...)?
 
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Weregoat said:
So you're saying you'd raise bigger pre, call the 4-bet, and stack off with any board with AJx, KJx, and QJx, provided there are possible made straights or flushes (not that we can put an opponent on T9s or anything...)?
Click to expand...

The raise bigger pre was a side note. Interestingly enough had we raised bigger pre (say standard to $24) and then villain 4 bet, we may not have had the correct price to call pre given stack sizes (depending on the size of villains 4 bet obviously).... since we did raise smaller and villain 4 bet smallish it changes the situation around though.

As far as AJx KJx and QJx flop, like I said, if it were possible to limit villains range to exclusively sets on any particular board I'd be willing to laydown. The issue is that on each one of these boards there are other hands in villains range that will shovel money in given the stack sizes, the size of the pot pre (and the fact that its a 4 bet pot pre) AJx AK will certainly shovel $ in. KJx, AA and AK both will. QJx, AA will and KK likely will as well (although the flop is terrible for KK)

Pretty much the only way I'd give folding consideration like I mentioned earlier is if the original raiser shovels $ in on a AJx flop since I do not expect him to show up with AK here often if ever, so I have to give slowplayed Aces consideration.

As far as straights go, unless I have a read to indictate that Original raiser is very bad (i.e will open/cold call 4 bets with SCs) or that 4 bettor is speculative to the point where he'll 4 bet SCs or similiar vs an open and a 3bet, I won't really give them consideration (outside of QJT flops obviously). If we lose to a cute hand I'll make a note of it
 
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