$200 NLHE Full Ring: River Line with Rivered 2 Pair

B

bw07507

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: River Line with Rivered 2 Pair

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/18/1.4

We're shorthanded here as the table is breaking and I have no history with villain that I know of. Fold to Flop cbet of 57%, turn and river aggression are 17 and 18% respectively. I have 500 hands on villain Bet/fold or ch/call this river?

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $284.85 (142.4 bb)
BB: $38 (19 bb)
UTG: $208.25 (104.1 bb)
MP: $40 (20 bb)
Hero (CO): $200 (100 bb)
BTN: $494.95 (247.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J
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A
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2 folds, Hero raises to $7, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) J
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3
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Q
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(2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN calls $12

Turn: ($41) 2
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $21, Hero calls $21

River: ($83) A
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(2 players)
Hero ?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Tricky spot. He could have anything like JQ, KQ, 33, AQ, KJ ... seems like almost half the stuff he might have has you beat right? You dont have huge equity I know that much so I guess I go for check-call.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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KT, AQ & 33 are the only hands we really need to worry about. 33 also raises the flop sometimes, and KT probably doesn't show up often either. Plus AQ might 3-bet preflop once in a while, however its full ring, so maybe not...

The real question about betting the river is just how many draws & floats are in his range & will he bluff them. A QJx flop isn't really the dryest so he will have some hands he can float with. But it'd be a disaster if QT or KQ checked back the river, and this guy is on the passive side, so I don't think he's bluffing these hands often.

/me votes for bet/fold, and I bet kinda big too, maybe 65-70ish?
 
zachvac

zachvac

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First off being behind never even enters my head here. We're looking to maximize value. We're shorthanded against a 22/18, his range is super-wide here. Both bet/fold and ch/c have merit and both are actually pretty good. If we bet we basically rep KT/missed spade draw and I think he calls us pretty light thinking we're in a nuts or air situation. Alternatively checking back lets him fire again with his bluffs especially when the spades miss and he may even make a thin vbet with like KQ. I think both lines are good and I would mix it up if this guy is a solid reg but in a vacuum I guess I like ch/c here just because I think he has a good amount of air in his range here and not a ton of Qx/Jx hands.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I check call here because i expect a larger part of his range to be air than marginal made hands and because the A is a perfect scare card for a floater to fire a second barrel and less likely for a marginal hand to call.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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His river aggression is 18%, and his AF is 1.4. Just how many scare cards do you expect this guy to barrel? This guy is passive as hell! If he has a hand like 9T, I fully expect this guy just to give up.
 
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